Rapidly rising incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes in Chinese population: epidemiology in Shanghai during 1997–2011
- 631 Downloads
The aim of this study was to investigate incidence trend of childhood type 1 diabetes in Shanghai, a megalopolis in east China. We established a population-based retrospective registry for the disease in the city’s registered population during 1997–2011 and collected 622 incident type 1 diabetes in children aged 0–14 years. Standardized incidence rates and 95 % CI were estimated by applying the capture–recapture method and assuming Poisson distribution. Incidence trend was analyzed using the Poisson regression model. The mean annual incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes was 3.1 per 100,000 person-years. We did not observe significant difference in incidence between boys and girls. The incidence is unstable and had a mean annual increase 14.2 % per year during the studied period. A faster annual increase was observed in boys, warmer seasons, and in the outer regions of the city. If present trends continue, the number of new type 1 diabetes cases will double from 2016 to 2020, and prevalent cases will sextuple by 2025. Our results showed the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes was rising rapidly in Shanghai. More studies are needed to analyze incidence changes in other regions of China for appropriate allocation of healthcare resources.
KeywordsChinese Childhood Type 1 diabetes Epidemiology Incidence Increase
We thank the Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and Shanghai Municipal Human Resources and Social Security Bureau for their generous support for this study. We are grateful to Dr. Xiaoling Ge from the department of informatics at Children’s Hospital of Fudan University for her valuable support in the administration of data archive. We are also grateful to Dr. Francine R. Kaufman for her suggestions in English language. CS thanks support from EFSD in the form of EFSD/CDS/Lilly fellowship and support from Chinese Scholarship Council (2009610015). The study is supported by the Chinese National Twelfth Five Year Key Science and Technology Plan (2012BAI09B00).
Conflict of interest
The authors declared no conflict of interest.
Human and animal rights
All procedures followed were in accordance with the ethical standards of the responsible committee on human experimentation (institutional and national) and with the Helsinki Declaration of 1975, as revised in 2008.
The data collection, distribution, and publication procedures of our study have been reviewed and approved by the Faculty Hospital Ethics Committee in Children’s Hospital of Fudan University, and the need for individual informed consent was waived by the committee.
- 4.National Bureau of Statistics of China (2011) Communiqué of the National Bureau of Statistics of People’s Republic of China on Major Figures of the 2010 Population Census (No. 1)Google Scholar
- 5.United Nations (2011) World population prospects: the 2010 revision volume I: comprehensive tablesGoogle Scholar
- 9.Shanghai Municipal Statistics Bureau (2012) Shanghai statistical yearbook. China Statistics Press. http://www.stats-sh.gov.cn/tjnj/tjnj2012.htm
- 12.International Working Group for Disease Monitoring and Forecasting (1995) Capture–recapture and multiple-record systems estimation II: applications in human diseases. Am J Epidemiol 142:1059–1068Google Scholar
- 17.Karvonen M, Pitkaniemi M, Pitkaniemi J, Kohtamaki K, Tajima N, Tuomilehto J (1997) Sex difference in the incidence of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus: an analysis of the recent epidemiological data. World Health Organization DIAMOND Project Group. Diabetes Metab Rev 13:275–291PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar