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A nomogram prediction model for refracture in elderly patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures after percutaneous vertebroplasty

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Abstract

Background

This study aims to evaluate the risk factors of refracture in elderly patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture (OVCF) patients after percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP) and construct a predictive nomogram model.

Methods

Elderly symptomatic OVCF patients undergoing PVP were enrolled and grouped based on the development of refracture within 1 year postoperatively. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors. Subsequently, a nomogram prediction model was constructed and evaluated based on these risk factors.

Results

A total of 264 elderly OVCF patients were enrolled in the final cohort. Among these, 48 (18.2%) patients had suffered refracture within 1 year after surgery. Older age, lower mean spinal BMD, multiple vertebral fracture, lower albumin/fibrinogen ratio (AFR), no postoperative regular anti-osteoporosis, and exercise were six independent risk factors identified for postoperative refracture. The AUC of the constructed nomogram model based on these six factors was 0.812 with a specificity and sensitivity of 0.787 and 0.750, respectively.

Conclusions

In summary, the nomogram model based on the six risk factors had clinical efficacy for refracture prediction.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Orthopedics, The Affiliated Taizhou People’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Taizhou School of Clinical Medicine, Nanjing Medical University, No. 366 Taihu Road, Taizhou City, 225300, Jiangsu Province, China

    Gang Ju

  2. Chengdong Street Community Medical Service Center, Taizhou, China

    Xiaoqing Liu

Authors
  1. Gang Ju
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  2. Xiaoqing Liu
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Contributions

XQL participated in the conception and design, data collection, and statistical analysis; GJ wrote the manuscript and participated in the conception and design and data collection.

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Correspondence to Gang Ju.

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The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

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This study protocol was approved by the ethics committee of Taizhou People’s Hospital. All patients included were required to offer written informed consent.

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Ju, G., Liu, X. A nomogram prediction model for refracture in elderly patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures after percutaneous vertebroplasty. Eur Spine J 32, 3919–3926 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00586-023-07843-w

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00586-023-07843-w

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