Abstract
Background
Two serology-based scoring models for prognostication of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the BALAD and BALAD-2 models, were applied to a Japanese cohort of a nationwide follow-up survey of HCC. The ability of these models to predict the progression of HCC and the deterioration of liver function and to assess prognosis was evaluated.
Methods
BALAD and BALAD-2 scores were calculated in 24,029 patients from a cohort of Japanese nationwide survey based on the serum levels of five markers (bilirubin, albumin, lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive alpha-fetoprotein, alpha-fetoprotein, and des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin) measured at the time of HCC diagnosis. The associations of these scores with the progression of HCC and liver function and with survival rates were analyzed.
Results
There were good correlations between BALAD and BALAD-2 scores and the progression of HCC and Child–Pugh class. Both scores accurately categorized patients into risk groups with different survival rates. BALAD-2 showed superior discrimination of patient survival compared with the original BALAD.
Conclusions
Serology-based scoring models for prognostication, especially the BALAD-2 model, were useful for staging and prognostication of survival in a cohort of Japanese patients with HCC from a nationwide survey.
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Supplementary material 2 (PPTX 221 kb) Supplementary figure S1. Selection flowchart of the study patients in a cohort of a Japanese nationwide survey of patients with HCC. Supplementary figure S2. Survival rates of patients with intermediate BALAD scores. A) Comparison of survival rates of patients with BALAD score 3 between patients with 1 elevated tumor marker (deteriorated liver function predominant) and patients with 3 elevated tumor markers (tumor progression predominant). No significant difference was found (p = 0.3873). B) Comparison of survival rates of patients with BALAD score 2 between patients with 0 elevated tumor marker (deteriorated liver function predominant) and patients with 2 elevated tumor markers (tumor progression predominant). No significant difference was found (P = 0.6990). Supplementary figure S3. Survival rates of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after diagnosis by original BALAD scores evaluated by serum levels of the following measured at the diagnosis of HCC: ALB, T-Bil, AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP. A) Patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection; B) Patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection; C) Patients without hepatitis virus infection (non-HBV/HCV). Supplementary figure S4. Survival rates of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who undergone A) curative, B) intermediate, and C) palliative or no treatment after diagnosis by original BALAD scores evaluated by serum levels of the following measured at the diagnosis of HCC: ALB, T-Bil, AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP. Supplementary figure S5. Survival rates of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after diagnosis based on Japan Integrated Staging scores evaluated at the diagnosis of HCC. Dotted lines, 95% confidence intervals (CIs)
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Toyoda, H., Tada, T., Johnson, P.J. et al. Validation of serological models for staging and prognostication of HCC in patients from a Japanese nationwide survey. J Gastroenterol 52, 1112–1121 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00535-017-1321-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00535-017-1321-6