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Probabilities of future VEI ≥ 2 eruptions at the Central American Volcanic Arc: a statistical perspective based on the past centuries’ eruption record

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Abstract

A probabilistic eruption forecast is provided for seven historically active volcanoes along the Central American Volcanic Arc (CAVA), as a pivotal empirical contribution to multi-disciplinary volcanic hazards assessment. The eruption probabilities are determined with a Kaplan–Meier estimator of survival functions, and parametric time series models are applied to describe the historical eruption records. Aside from the volcanoes that are currently in a state of eruptive activity (Santa María, Fuego, and Arenal), the highest probabilities for eruptions of VEI ≥ 2 occur at Concepción and Cerro Negro in Nicaragua, which are likely to erupt to 70–85 % within the next 10 years. Poás and Irazú in Costa Rica show a medium to high eruption probability, followed by San Miguel (El Salvador), Rincón de la Vieja (Costa Rica), and Izalco (El Salvador; 24 % within the next 10 years).

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Acknowledgments

We sincerely thank Joan Martí and Servando De la Cruz-Reyna for detailed and constructive reviews that have greatly improved the clarity of this paper. We would also like to thank Ralf Halama for useful comments and for the editorial handling of the manuscript. An anonymous reviewer provided comments on an earlier version. This paper is contribution No. 220 of Sonderforschungsbereich (SFB) 574 at the University of Kiel, Germany, funded by the German Research Foundation.

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  1. SFB 574, University of Kiel, Otto-Hahn-Platz 1, 24118, Kiel, Germany

    Yvonne Dzierma

  2. SFB 574, GEOMAR | Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Wischhofstr. 1-3, 24148, Kiel, Germany

    Heidi Wehrmann

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  1. Yvonne Dzierma
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  2. Heidi Wehrmann
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Correspondence to Heidi Wehrmann.

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Dzierma, Y., Wehrmann, H. Probabilities of future VEI ≥ 2 eruptions at the Central American Volcanic Arc: a statistical perspective based on the past centuries’ eruption record. Int J Earth Sci (Geol Rundsch) 103, 2029–2042 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00531-012-0803-2

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