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Seismic slip rates, potential subsurface rupture areas and seismic potential of the Vienna Basin Transfer Fault

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Abstract

The Vienna Basin Transfer Fault (VBTF) is a slow active fault with moderate seismicity (I max~8–9, M max~5.7) passing through the most vulnerable regions of Austria and Slovakia. We use different data to constrain the seismic potential of the VBTF including slip values computed from the seismic energy release during the 20th century, geological data on fault segmentation and a depth-extrapolated 3-D model of a generalized fault surface, which is used to define potential rupture zones. The seismic slip of the VBTF as a whole is in the range of 0.22–0.31 mm/year for a seismogenic fault thickness of 8 km. Seismic slip rates for individual segments vary from 0.00 to 0.77 mm/year. Comparing these data to geologically and GPS-derived slip velocities (>1 mm/year) proofs that the fault yields a significant seismic slip deficit. Segments of the fault with high seismic slip contrast from segments with no slip representing locked segments. Fault surfaces of segments within the seismogenic zone (4–14 km depth) vary from 55 to 400 km2. Empirical scaling relations show that these segments are sufficiently large to explain both, earthquakes observed in the last centuries, and the 4th century Carnuntum earthquake, for which archeo-seismological data suggest a magnitude of M ≥ 6. Based on the combination of all data (incomplete earthquake catalog, seismic slip deficits, locked segments, potential rupture areas, indications of strong pre-catalog earthquakes) we argue, that the maximum credible earthquake for the VBTF is in the range M max = 6.0–6.8, significantly larger than the magnitude of the strongest recorded events (M = 5.7).

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Acknowledgments

We had inspiring discussions on seismology with G. Gangl and W. Lenhardt, who also made the earthquake catalogs available for research. C. Hulka is thanked for prove reading of the manuscript. Constructive reviews were provided by S. Cloetingh and B. Salcher, improving the quality of the paper.

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  1. Ralph Hinsch

    Present address: Rohoel-Aufsuchungs AG (RAG), Schwarzenbergplatz 16, 1015, Vienna, Austria

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  1. Department of Geodynamics and Sedimentology, University of Vienna, Althanstrasse 14, 1090, Vienna, Austria

    Ralph Hinsch & Kurt Decker

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Correspondence to Ralph Hinsch.

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Hinsch, R., Decker, K. Seismic slip rates, potential subsurface rupture areas and seismic potential of the Vienna Basin Transfer Fault. Int J Earth Sci (Geol Rundsch) 100, 1925–1935 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00531-010-0613-3

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