Kurzfassung
Zur Quantifizierung des Hochwasserrisikos werden Risikoanalysen durchgeführt. Solche Analysen beschäftigen sich typischerweise mit extremen Ereignissen und Versagensszenarios, die zum Zeitpunkt der Analyse kaum oder überhaupt nicht beobachtet wurden. Aus diesem Grund sind Risikoanalysen mit beträchtlicher Unsicherheit verbunden. Analysen zur Unsicherheit von Hochwasser-Risikoaussagen werden heute immer noch selten durchgeführt. Dieser Beitrag argumentiert für die Durchführung von Unsicherheitsanalysen und zeigt, dass diese (1) Risikoanalysen verbessern, (2) die Validierung bzw. Plausibilisierung von Risikoanalysen unterstützen, und (3) eine zusätzliche Information für die Entscheidungsfindung sind.
Summary
The aim of flood risk analyses is to quantitatively assess the flood risk. In its broad sense, flood risk is defined as the probability of adverse consequences due to inundation. Flood risk analyses are typically dealing with extreme events and failure scenarios which have hardly been (or not at all) observed. Therefore, flood risk assessments are accompanied with considerable uncertainty. Today, it is not standard practice to explicitly analyse the uncertainty bounds of flood risk estimates. This paper discusses the value of uncertainty analysis for flood risk analysis. We argue in favour of uncertainty analyses in flood risk assessments, since uncertainty considerations (1) improve risk analyses, (2) help to confirm or falsify risk analyses, and (3) support decision-making.
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Merz, B., Kreibich, H. & Apel, H. Flood risk analysis: uncertainties and validation. Österr Wasser- und Abfallw 60, 89–94 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00506-008-0001-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00506-008-0001-4