Abstract
Prediction of urban household water demand (UHWD) is significant to water resources’ management, since it helps alleviate a city government’s water scarcity burden. Uncertain time series analysis is a set of statistical techniques that use uncertainty theory to predict future values based on the previously observed values. This paper presents an uncertain time series model to predict the UHWD based on annual series data. The case of Handan, a Chinese city, is then analyzed to predict the local UHWD. The results show that the prediction accuracy of uncertain time series model is higher than that of the traditional UHWD prediction models. Meanwhile, uncertain time series model is easy to use for the data like UHWD series. Therefore, this study concludes that uncertain time series analysis is suitable for describing the UHWD series of cities similar to Handan city.
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Notes
The data were derived from China Urban Statistical Yearbook 1994–2018. https://www.cnki.net/.
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Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 61873084).
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This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 61873084).
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Wei Li processed the data and wrote the paper. Xiaosheng Wang revised the paper.
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Li, W., Wang, X. Analysis and prediction of urban household water demand with uncertain time series. Soft Comput 28, 6199–6206 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00500-023-09476-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00500-023-09476-z