Prediction of storm surge and inundation using climatological datasets for the Indian coast using soft computing techniques

Abstract

Natural hazards such as tropical cyclones is a topic of wider interest and operational forecast of their landfall, maximum sustained winds, storm surge height and associated extent of inland inundation is a challenging topic having wider socio-economic implication. Recent advancements in computational power and development of sophisticated models have resulted in better understanding the dynamics of atmosphere and ocean. Forecast quality have improved to a great extent however there are still constraints in computation time and cost for real-time operations. Soft computing techniques in the broad domain of computational intelligence are widely recognized today having diverse practical applications and beneficial value across multiple disciplines. The present study is an effort on application of soft computing techniques such as Artificial Neural Networks, Genetic Algorithm, and Genetic Programming to predict storm surge and inundation characteristics resulting from tropical cyclones. The coast of Odisha adjoining the Bay of Bengal is considered for this case study. Historically, the Odisha coast is known to be highly vulnerable to strike from maximum number of high intense tropical cyclones that form over Bay of Bengal region. Recently in a separate study the authors have developed a comprehensive pre-computed dataset on storm surges and inundation scenarios from historical cyclones that made landfall over coastal Odisha State. Present study is an effort to effectively utilize the pre-computed dataset for real-time operation using soft computing techniques and that performs rapid computation to aid emergency preparedness and planning operations. Study performed several numerical experiments using various soft computing techniques and best possible configuration for real-time operation is developed. An inter-comparison exercise was also carried out to skill assess the performance of various soft computing techniques. The authors believe that this study has immense potential for real-time operations and that can be extended to other coastal regions in India.

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Acknowledgements

The authors sincerely express their gratitude to the Ministry of Human Resource Development (MHRD), Government of India for the financial support vide Grant No. IIT/SRIC/NA/PIS/2013-14/231, dated 18-04-2014. This study is conducted as a part of the mega project ‘Artificial intelligence for societal needs: knowledge discovery and intelligent decision making for solving problems in Indian context related to energy, climate, water, disaster management and traffic’ under the sub-project ‘Application of Artificial Intelligence on mapping Coastal inundation and Evacuation route planning through multiple scenarios of storm surge simulations’ supported by MHRD, Government of India. In addition, this study was conducted as a part of the Centre of Excellence (CoE) in Climate Change studies established at IIT Kharagpur and funded by the Department of Science & Technology, Government of India. It forms a part of the sub-project ‘Wind-Waves and Extreme Water Level Climate Projections for the East Coast of India’ under the CoE in Climate Change at IIT Kharagpur.

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Sahoo, B., Bhaskaran, P.K. Prediction of storm surge and inundation using climatological datasets for the Indian coast using soft computing techniques. Soft Comput 23, 12363–12383 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00500-019-03775-0

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Keywords

  • Storm surge
  • Inundation
  • Artificial Neural Network
  • Genetic Algorithm
  • Genetic Programming
  • Indian Ocean