Balancing strategic contributions and financial returns: a project portfolio selection model under uncertainty
- 146 Downloads
This paper constructs a project portfolio selection model from the strategic perspective. Two goals are proposed for the portfolio to achieve, i.e., strategic contributions and financial returns. The uncertainties involved are addressed with fuzzy real options. Then, a modified multi-objective genetic algorithm is designed to determine the portfolios. Finally, a real case is provided to validate the model’s effectiveness. The results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can optimize two objectives simultaneously and keep the plausible Pareto-optimal set which wins over the single-objective model solutions in achieving the shared value.
KeywordsObjective trade-offs Project portfolio selection Fuzzy real options Multi-objective genetic algorithm
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71172123), Natural Science Basic Research Plan in Shaanxi Province of China (Program No. 2015JM7382), Social Science Foundation in Shaanxi Province of China (Program No. 2015R005), Soft Science Research Plan in Shaanxi Province of China (Program No. 2015KRM039).
Compliance with ethical standards
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest regarding the publication of this paper.
- Birgisson I (2012) Project portfolio management in new product development organizations application of accepted PPM theories in practice (master’s thesis), Chalmers University of technologyGoogle Scholar
- Karsak E (2006) A generalized fuzzy optimization framework for R&D project selection using real options valuation. In: Computational science and its applications-ICCSA, pp 918–927Google Scholar
- Tolga AÇ (2012) A real options approach for software development projects using fuzzy electre. J Mult Valued Logic Soft Comput 18:541–560Google Scholar
- Wang Q, Kilgour DM, Hipel KW (2011) Fuzzy real options for risky project evaluation using least squares Monte-Carlo simulation. IEEE Syst J 5(3):385–395Google Scholar
- Yan S, Ji X (2017) Portfolio selection model of oil projects under uncertain environment. Soft Comput. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00500-017-2619-2