Abstract
As studies begin to have more success uncovering the relationships between atmospheric conditions and pain, weather-based pain forecasting becomes more of a reality. In this study, a survey was used to determine if people living with migraines and/or other pain-related conditions are receptive to weather-based pain forecasts. Moreover, we wished to identify whether these forecasts actually impact the decision-making of those who use them. Survey respondents were generally eager to use these novel forecasts. Furthermore, when provided with different scenarios involving weather-based pain forecasts, the respondents’ actions were altered. When a hypothetical forecast indicated that the weather was conducive to migraines or other types of pain, many indicated that they would likely take preventative measures (e.g., medication). Additionally, respondents were less likely to continue with a planned activity, regardless of length, as forecast severity increased. The results from this survey highlight the importance of developing and improving weather-based pain forecasting.
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Data Availability
The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, Christopher Elcik, upon reasonable request.
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank those who completed the survey as well as the many people who shared the link to it. A special thanks goes to James Spann, who shared it with his hundreds of thousands of followers on social media, truly making this work possible.
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Appendix
Appendix
Weather-based pain Survey
-
1)
How old are you?
-
18-24 years old
-
25-34 years old
-
35-44 years old
-
45-54 years old
-
55-64 years old
-
65-74 years old
-
75-84 years old
-
85 years or older
-
-
2)
What is your sex?
-
Male
-
Female
-
-
3)
What state do you currently live in?
-
4)
Where do you get your daily weather information? (select all that apply)
-
local television meteorologist (television, website, social media, etc.)
-
The Weather Channel (television, website, social media, app, etc.)
-
internet sites (Accuweather, Weather Underground, etc.)
-
local National Weather Service office (website, social media, etc.)
-
radio
-
newspaper
-
smartphone or tablet weather app
-
word of mouth
-
other
-
-
5)
Do you suffer from migraines?
-
Yes
-
No
-
*If No is selected, then skip to question 24*
-
6)
How often do you get migraines?
-
0-4 per year
-
5-9 per year
-
10-14 per year
-
15+ per year
-
-
7)
Have you dealt with migraines for a majority of your life?
-
Yes
-
No
-
-
8)
Are your migraines associated with a pre-existing condition?
-
Yes
-
No
-
-
9)
Which symptoms are associated with your migraine? (select all that apply)
-
head pain
-
dizziness
-
irritability
-
nausea
-
visual disturbances
-
other
-
-
10)
Have you found a successful way to reduce or eliminate your migraine symptoms? (i.e., medication)
-
Yes
-
No
-
-
11)
For the past year, estimate how many days of work/school you have missed due to migraines.
-
none
-
1-4 days
-
5-8 days
-
9-12 days
-
13 + days
-
I currently do not work or attend school
-
-
12)
For the past year, estimate how many days you have attended work/school but had your productivity impacted due to migraines.
-
none
-
1-4 days
-
5-8 days
-
9-12 days
-
13 + days
-
I currently do not work or attend school
-
-
13)
Approximately how many times have you gone to the emergency room (ER) because of migraines?
-
never
-
1-4 times
-
5-8 times
-
9 + times
-
-
14)
What factors do you believe have an impact on your migraines? (select all that apply)
-
stress
-
weather
-
hormones
-
food/drink
-
sleep patterns
-
other
-
*If weather is selected, answer questions 15–17*
-
15)
Which of the following best explains how your migraines are affected by the weather? (select all that apply)
-
weather triggers migraine
-
weather changes migraine intensity
-
weather changes migraine duration
-
not sure
-
-
16)
On a scale from 0 (no impact) to 10 (highest impact), how do each of the following weather variables impact your migraine headaches? Please select “Not Sure” if you do not know how a variable impacts your migraine headaches.
Weather Variable
Ranking
Not Sure
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Pressure
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
Temperature
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
Moisture
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
Wind
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
Sunlight
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
Other
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
-
17)
When a weather front (i.e., warm front or cold front) moves through, does this have an impact on your migraine?
-
always
-
most of the time
-
about half the time
-
sometimes
-
never
-
-
18)
Have you used a migraine forecast based on weather conditions before?
-
Yes
-
No
-
-
19)
Would you be likely to alter your behavior based on a weather-based migraine forecast?
-
Yes
-
No
-
The next four questions give you a scenario to react to. Using the information below, please answer the questions as best you can.
Migraine weather-based forecasts can be:
-
Highest risk for migraines
-
Moderate risk for migraines
-
Neutral risk for migraines
-
Lower risk for migraines
-
No risk for migraines
-
20)
You currently are not experiencing symptoms, but the forecast indicates “highest risk for migraines.” How likely are you to take preventative measures (i.e., medication)?
-
Extremely likely
-
Moderately likely
-
Slightly likely
-
Neither likely nor unlikely
-
Slightly unlikely
-
Moderately unlikely
-
Extremely unlikely
-
-
21)
You currently are not experiencing symptoms, but the forecast indicates “moderate risk for migraines.” How likely are you to take preventative measures (i.e., medication)?
-
Extremely likely
-
Moderately likely
-
Slightly likely
-
Neither likely nor unlikely
-
Slightly unlikely
-
Moderately unlikely
-
Extremely unlikely
-
-
22)
It is 10:00 am on a Saturday. You have an activity planned for 12:00 pm. The forecast indicates “highest risk for migraines.” How likely are you to continue with your activity?
Activity Length
Extremely likely
Somewhat likely
Neither likely nor unlikely
Somewhat unlikely
Extremely unlikely
30 min
1 h
2 h
3 + hours
-
23)
It is 10:00 am on a Saturday. You have an activity planned for 12:00 pm. The forecast indicates “moderate risk for migraines.” How likely are you to continue with your activity?
Activity Length
Extremely likely
Somewhat likely
Neither likely nor unlikely
Somewhat unlikely
Extremely unlikely
30 min
1 h
2 h
3 + hours
-
24)
Do you suffer from a pain-related condition (i.e., arthritis, osteoarthritis, fibromyalgia)?
-
Yes
-
No
-
*if No is selected, then skip to the end of the survey*
-
25)
How often do you experience pain?
-
0-1 times per week
-
2-3 times per week
-
4-5 times per week
-
6 + times per week
-
-
26)
How long have you been dealing with a pain-related condition?
-
0-5 years
-
6-11 years
-
12-17 years
-
18 + years
-
-
27)
Have you found a successful way to reduce or eliminate the pain associated with your condition? (i.e., medication)
-
Yes
-
No
-
-
28)
For the past year, estimate how many days of work/school you have missed due to pain.
-
none
-
1-4 days
-
5-8 days
-
9-12 days
-
13 + days
-
I currently do not work or attend school
-
-
29)
For the past year, estimate how many days you have attended work/school but had your productivity impacted due to pain.
-
none
-
1-4 days
-
5-8 days
-
9-12 days
-
13 + days
-
I currently do not work or attend school
-
-
30)
Approximately how many times have you gone to the emergency room (ER) due to pain from your condition?
-
never
-
1-4 times
-
5-8 times
-
9 + times
-
-
31)
What factors do you believe impact your pain? (select all that apply)
-
stress
-
weather
-
hormones
-
food/drink
-
sleep patterns
-
other
-
*If weather is selected, answer questions 32–34*
-
32)
Which of the following best explains how your pain is affected by the weather? (select all that apply)
-
weather triggers pain
-
weather changes pain intensity
-
weather changes pain duration
-
not sure
-
-
33)
On a scale from 0 (no impact) to 10 (highest impact), how do each of the following weather variables impact your pain? Please select “Not Sure” if you do not know how a variable impacts your pain.
Weather Variable
Ranking
Not Sure
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Pressure
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
Temperature
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
Moisture
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
Wind
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
Sunlight
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
Other
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
-
34)
When a front (i.e., warm front or cold front) moves through, does this have an impact on your pain?
-
always
-
most of the time
-
about half the time
-
sometimes
-
never
-
-
35)
Have you used a pain forecast based on weather conditions before?
-
Yes
-
No
-
-
36)
Would you be likely to alter your behavior based on a weather-based pain forecast?
-
Yes
-
No
-
The next four questions give you a scenario to react to. Using the information below, please answer the questions as best you can.
Pain weather-based forecasts can be:
-
Highest risk for pain
-
Moderate risk for pain
-
Neutral risk for pain
-
Lower risk for pain
-
No risk for pain
-
37)
You currently are not experiencing symptoms, but the forecast indicates “highest risk for pain.” How likely are you to take preventative measures (i.e., medication)?
-
Extremely likely
-
Moderately likely
-
Slightly likely
-
Neither likely nor unlikely
-
Slightly unlikely
-
Moderately unlikely
-
Extremely unlikely
-
-
38)
You currently are not experiencing symptoms, but the forecast indicates “moderate risk for pain.” How likely are you to take preventative measures (i.e., medication)?
-
Extremely likely
-
Moderately likely
-
Slightly likely
-
Neither likely nor unlikely
-
Slightly unlikely
-
Moderately unlikely
-
Extremely unlikely
-
-
39)
It is 10:00 am on a Saturday. You have an activity planned for 12:00 pm. The forecast indicates “highest risk for pain.” How likely are you to continue with your activity?
Activity Length
Extremely likely
Somewhat likely
Neither likely nor unlikely
Somewhat unlikely
Extremely unlikely
30 min
1 h
2 h
3 + hours
-
40)
It is 10:00 am on a Saturday. You have an activity planned for 12:00 pm. The forecast indicates “moderate risk for pain.” How likely are you to continue with your activity?
Activity Length
Extremely likely
Somewhat likely
Neither likely nor unlikely
Somewhat unlikely
Extremely unlikely
30 min
1 h
2 h
3 + hours
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Elcik, C.J., Fuhrmann, C.M., Sheridan, S.C. et al. Perceptions of weather-based pain forecasts and their effect on daily activities. Int J Biometeorol 68, 109–123 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-023-02575-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-023-02575-4