Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Summer heat waves and their mortality risk over a 14-year period in a western region of Iran

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
International Journal of Biometeorology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Compared to previous decade, impact of heat waves (HWs) on mortality in recent years needs to be discussed in Iran. We investigated temporal change in added impact of summer HWs on mortality in eight cities of Iran. The pooled length of HWs was compared between 2015–2022 and 2008–2014 using random and fixed-effects of meta-analysis regression model. The temporal change in impact of HWs was evaluated through interaction effect between crossbasis function of HW and year in a two-stage time varying model. In order to pool the reduced coefficients of each period, multivariate meta-regression model, including city-specific temperature and temperature range as heterogenicity factors, was used. In addition to relative risk (RR), attributable fraction (AF) of HW in the two periods was also estimated in each city. In the last years, the frequency of all HWs was higher and the weak HWs were significantly longer. The only significant RR was related to the lowest and low severe HWs which was observed in the second period. In terms of AF, compared to the strong HWs, all weak HWs caused a considerable excess mortality in all cities and second period. The subgroup analysis revealed that the significant impact in the second period was mainly related to females and elderlies. The increased risk and AF due to more frequent and longer HWs (weak HWs) in the last years highlights the need for mitigation strategies in the region. Because of uncertainty in the results of severe HWs, further elaborately investigation of the HWs is need.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

The data is not publicly available due to ethical concerns but are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Code availability

The R codes are available under request from corresponding author.

References

  • Afshar PF, Asgari P, Shiri M, Bahramnezhad F (2016) A review of the Iran’s elderly status according to the census records. Galen Med J 5:1–6

    Google Scholar 

  • Agency USEP (2022) Climate change indicators: heat waves. https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-heat-waves. Accessed 24 April 2022 2022

  • Ahmadi H, Ahmadi T, Shahmoradi B, Mohammadi S, Kohzadi S (2015) The effect of climatic parameters on air pollution in Sanandaj. Iran J Adv Environ Health Res 3:49–61

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Allen MJ, Sheridan SC (2018) Mortality risks during extreme temperature events (ETEs) using a distributed lag non-linear model. Int J Biometeorol 62:57–67

    Google Scholar 

  • Barnett AG (2007) Temperature and cardiovascular deaths in the US elderly: changes over time. Epidemiology 18:369–372

    Google Scholar 

  • Barriopedro D, Fischer EM, Luterbacher J, Trigo RM, García-Herrera R (2011) The hot summer of 2010: redrawing the temperature record map of Europe. Science 332:220–224

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Basara J, Basara H, Illston B, Crawford K (2010) The impact of the urban heat island during an intense heat wave in Oklahoma City. Adv Meteor 2010:230365

    Google Scholar 

  • Bobb JF, Peng RD, Bell ML, Dominici F (2014) Heat-related mortality and adaptation to heat in the United States. Environ Health Perspect 122:811–816

    Google Scholar 

  • Boeckmann M, Rohn I (2014) Is planned adaptation to heat reducing heat-related mortality and illness? A systematic review. BMC Public Health 14:1–13

    Google Scholar 

  • Campbell S, Remenyi TA, White CJ, Johnston FH (2018) Heatwave and health impact research: a global review. Health Place 53:210–218

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen K, Bi J, Chen J, Chen X, Huang L, Zhou L (2015) Influence of heat wave definitions to the added effect of heat waves on daily mortality in Nanjing, China. Sci Total Environ 506:18–25

    Google Scholar 

  • Dadbakhsh M, Khanjani N, Bahrampour A, Haghighi PS (2017) Death from respiratory diseases and temperature in Shiraz, Iran (2006–2011). Int J biometeorol 61:239–246

    Google Scholar 

  • Davis RE, Knappenberger PC, Novicoff WM, Michaels PJ (2003) Decadal changes in summer mortality in US cities. Int J Biometeorol 47:166–175

    Google Scholar 

  • De’Donato F, Scortichini M, De Sario M, De Martino A, Michelozzi P (2018) Temporal variation in the effect of heat and the role of the Italian heat prevention plan. Public Health 161:154–162

    Google Scholar 

  • Díaz J, Carmona R, Mirón I, Luna M, Linares C (2018) Time trend in the impact of heat waves on daily mortality in Spain for a period of over thirty years (1983–2013). Environ Int 116:10–17

    Google Scholar 

  • Fatehi Z, Shahoei SV (2021) Predicting the impact of climate change on temperature in Sanandaj City Environment and Water. Engineering 7:170–182

    Google Scholar 

  • Gasparrini A, Armstrong B (2011) The impact of heat waves on mortality. Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass) 22:68

    Google Scholar 

  • Gasparrini A, Leone M (2014) Attributable risk from distributed lag models. BMC Med Res Methodol 14:1–8

    Google Scholar 

  • Gasparrini A et al (2015) Temporal variation in heat–mortality associations: a multicountry study. Environ Health Perspect 123:1200–1207

    Google Scholar 

  • Guo Y, Barnett AG, Pan X, Yu W, Tong S (2011) The impact of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China: a case-crossover design with a distributed lag nonlinear model. Environ Health Perspect 119:1719–1725

    Google Scholar 

  • Guo Y et al (2017) Heat wave and mortality: a multicountry, multicommunity study. Environ Health Perspect 125:087006

    Google Scholar 

  • Hajat S, Armstrong B, Baccini M, Biggeri A, Bisanti L, Russo A, Paldy A, Menne B, Kosatsky T (2006) Impact of High Temperatures on Mortality. Epidemiology. 17(6):632–8

    Google Scholar 

  • Kim H, Kim H, Byun G, Choi Y, Song H, Lee J-T (2019) Difference in temporal variation of temperature-related mortality risk in seven major South Korean cities spanning 1998–2013. Sci Total Environ 656:986–996

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Kinney PL (2018) Temporal trends in heat-related mortality: implications for future projections. Atmosphere 9:409

    Google Scholar 

  • Kouis P, Kakkoura M, Ziogas K, Paschalidou AΚ, Papatheodorou SI (2019) The effect of ambient air temperature on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in Thessaloniki, Greece. Sci Total Environ 647:1351–1358

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Kovats RS, Kristie LE (2006) Heatwaves and public health in Europe. Eur J Pub Health 16:592–599

    Google Scholar 

  • Kuglitsch FG, Toreti A, Xoplaki E, Della-Marta PM, Zerefos CS, Türkeş M, Luterbacher J (2010) Heat wave changes in the eastern Mediterranean since 1960. Geophysical Research Letters 37(4):L04802

    Google Scholar 

  • Lee W, Choi HM, Lee JY, Kim DH, Honda Y, Kim H (2018) Temporal changes in mortality impacts of heat wave and cold spell in Korea and Japan. Environ Int 116:136–146

    Google Scholar 

  • Luan G, Yin P, Li T, Wang L, Zhou M (2017) The years of life lost on cardiovascular disease attributable to ambient temperature in China. Sci Rep 7:13531

    Google Scholar 

  • Mansournia MA, Altman DG (2018) Population attributable fraction. BMJ (Clinical research ed.) 22(360)

  • Martínez-Solanas È, Basagaña X (2019) Temporal changes in temperature-related mortality in Spain and effect of the implementation of a Heat Health Prevention Plan. Environ Res 169:102–113

    Google Scholar 

  • McGregor G, Bessemoulin P, Ebi K, Menne B (2015) Heat waves and health: guidance on 7 warning system development 8. World meteorological organization 14:15

    Google Scholar 

  • Mehnert P, Bröde P, Griefahn B (2002) Gender-related difference in sweat loss and its impact on exposure limits to heat stress. Int J Ind Ergon 29:343–351

    Google Scholar 

  • Organization SW (2023) Standards for the construction of various meteorological stations. http://www.semnanweather.ir/index.php. Accessed August 24 2023

  • Petkova EP, Gasparrini A, Kinney PL (2014) Heat and mortality in New York City since the beginning of the 20th century. Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass) 25:554

    Google Scholar 

  • Raei E, Nikoo MR, AghaKouchak A, Mazdiyasni O, Sadegh M (2018) GHWR, a multi-method global heatwave and warm-spell record and toolbox. Sci Data 5:1–15

    Google Scholar 

  • Robine J-M, Cheung SLK, Le Roy S, Van Oyen H, Griffiths C, Michel J-P, Herrmann FR (2008) Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003. C R Biol 331:171–178

    Google Scholar 

  • Saeb K, Malekzadeh M, Kardar S (2012) Air pollution estimation from traffic flows in Tehran highways Current World. Environment 7:1

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Serdeczny O et al (2017) Climate change impacts in sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions. Reg Environ Change 17:1585–1600

    Google Scholar 

  • Sheridan SC, Allen MJ (2018) Temporal trends in human vulnerability to excessive heat. Environ Res lett 13:043001

    Google Scholar 

  • Son J-Y, Lee J-T, Anderson GB, Bell ML (2012) The impact of heat waves on mortality in seven major cities in Korea. Environ Health Perspect 120:566–571

    Google Scholar 

  • Tong S, Wang XY, Guo Y (2012) Assessing the short-term effects of heatwaves on mortality and morbidity in Brisbane, Australia: comparison of case-crossover and time series analyses. PloS one 7:e37500

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Toulemon L, Barbieri M (2008) The mortality impact of the August 2003 heat wave in France: investigating the ‘harvesting’effect and other long-term consequences. Popul stud 62:39–53

    Google Scholar 

  • Venturini T, De Pryck K, Ackland R (2022) Bridging in network organisations. The case of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Soc Netw 75:137–147

    Google Scholar 

  • Vicedo-Cabrera AM et al (2018) A multi-country analysis on potential adaptive mechanisms to cold and heat in a changing climate. Environ Int 111:239–246

    Google Scholar 

  • Wan K, Feng Z, Hajat S, Doherty RM (2022) Temperature-related mortality and associated vulnerabilities: evidence from Scotland using extended time-series datasets. Environ Health 21:99. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12940-022-00912-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Whitman S, Good G, Donoghue ER, Benbow N, Shou W, Mou S (1997) Mortality in Chicago attributed to the July 1995 heat wave. Am J Public Health 87:1515–1518

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Yu W, Mengersen K, Wang X, Ye X, Guo Y, Pan X, Tong S (2012) Daily average temperature and mortality among the elderly: a meta-analysis and systematic review of epidemiological evidence. Int J Biometeorol 56:569–581

    Google Scholar 

  • Zeinalhajlou AA, Amini A, Tabrizi JS (2015) Consequences of population aging in Iran with emphasis on its increasing challenges on the health system (literature review). Depiction Health 6:54–64

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Y, Li C, Feng R, Zhu Y, Wu K, Tan X, Ma L (2016) The short-term effect of ambient temperature on mortality in Wuhan, China: a time-series study using a distributed lag non-linear model. Int J Environ Res Public Health 13:722

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank the National Department of Environment and Iran Meteorological Organization for providing us the data.

Funding

This work was supported by Deputy of Research and Technology at Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences with grant number of 1401.302.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Environmental Health Research Center, Research Institute for Health Development, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran

    Reza Rezaee, Serveh Fathi, Afshin Maleki, Omid Aboubakri & Mahdi Safari

  2. Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, Peking University, School of Public Health, Beijing, China

    Guoxing Li

  3. School of Public Health, Khoy University of Medical Sciences, Khoy, Iran

    Rahim Sharafkhani

  4. Department of Health in Emergencies and Disasters, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

    Mozhdeh Zarei

  5. Deputy of Research and Technology, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran

    Mozhdeh Zarei

Authors
  1. Reza Rezaee
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Serveh Fathi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Afshin Maleki
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Omid Aboubakri
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Guoxing Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Mahdi Safari
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Rahim Sharafkhani
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. Mozhdeh Zarei
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Omid Aboubakri.

Ethics declarations

Ethics approval

This study was approved by ethic committee of Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences.

Consent to participate

The study did not involve human subjects and the data with no personal identity was obtained from health deputy.

Consent for publication

Not applicable.

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Supplementary Information

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary file1 (DOCX 138 KB)

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Rezaee, R., Fathi, S., Maleki, A. et al. Summer heat waves and their mortality risk over a 14-year period in a western region of Iran. Int J Biometeorol 67, 2081–2091 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-023-02564-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-023-02564-7

Keywords

Search

Navigation