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Analysis of heatwaves based on the universal thermal climate index and apparent temperature over mainland Southeast Asia

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Abstract

Heatwaves have caused significant damage to human health, infrastructure, and economies in recent decades, and the occurrences of heatwaves are becoming more frequent and severe across the globe under climate change. The previous studies on heatwaves have primarily focused on air temperature, neglecting other variables like wind speed, relative humidity, and radiation, which could lead to a serious underestimation of the adverse effects of heatwaves. To address this issue, this study proposed to the use of more sophisticated thermal indices, such as universal thermal climate index (UTCI) and apparent temperature (AT), to define heatwaves and carry out a comprehensive heatwave assessment over mainland southeast Asia (MSEA) from 1961 to 2020. The traditional temperature-based method was also compared. The results of the study demonstrate that the annual maximum temperature in heatwave days (HWA) and the annual average temperature in heatwave days (HWM) are significantly underestimated if only air temperature is considered. However, UTCI and AT tend to predict a lower frequency of yearly heatwave occurrences and shorter durations. Trend analysis indicates a general increase in heatwave occurrences across MSEA under all thermal indices in the past six decades, particularly in the last 30 years. This study’s approach and findings provide a holistic view of heatwave characteristics based on thermal indices and highlight the risk of intensified heat stress during heatwaves in MSEA.

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Data availability

The data used to support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon request.

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The code used to support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon request.

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Acknowledgements

This research is supported by the Ministry of Education, Singapore, under its Academic Research Fund Tier 2 (MOE-T2EP50122-0003). Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of the Ministry of Education, Singapore. The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) is acknowledged for providing ERA5 and ERA5-Land reanalysis data. The authors express their sincere gratitude to the reviewers for their constructive comments, which greatly enhanced the quality of this work.

Funding

This research is supported by the Ministry of Education, Singapore, under its Academic Research Fund Tier 2 (MOE-T2EP50122-0003).

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  1. School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore

    Lilingjun Liu & Xiaosheng Qin

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Mr. Liu LLJ carried out the writing, original draft preparation, conceptualization, methodology, and coding. Dr. Qin XS participated in validation, data curation, review & editing.

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Correspondence to Xiaosheng Qin.

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Liu, L., Qin, X. Analysis of heatwaves based on the universal thermal climate index and apparent temperature over mainland Southeast Asia. Int J Biometeorol 67, 2055–2068 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-023-02562-9

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