Abstract
In the context of recent climate change, temperature-attributable mortality has become an important public health threat worldwide. A large number of studies in Europe have identified a relationship between temperature and mortality, while only a limited number of scholars provided evidence for Serbia. In order to provide more evidence for better management of health resources at the regional and local level, this study aims to assess the impact of summer temperature on the population in Serbia, using daily average temperature (Ta) and mortality (CDR (crude death rate) per 100,000). The analysis was done for five areas (Belgrade, Novi Sad, Niš, Loznica, and Vranje), covering the summer (June–August) period of 2001–2015. In order to quantify the Ta-related CDR, a generalized additive model (GAM) assuming a quasi-Poisson distribution with log as the link function was used. Five regression models were constructed, for each area, revealing a statistically significant positive relationship between Ta and CDR in four areas. The effect of Ta on CDR was defined as the relative risk (RR), which was obtained as the exponential regression coefficient of the models. RR indicates that a 1 °C increase in Ta at lag0 was associated with an increase in CDR of 1.7% for Belgrade, Novi Sad, and Niš and 2% for Loznica. The model for Vranje did not quantify a statistically significant increase in CDR due to Ta (RR=1.006, 95% CI 0.991–1.020). Similar results were confirmed for gender, with a slightly higher risk for women. Analysis across lag structure showed different exposure, but the highest effect of Ta mainly occurs over the short term and persists for 3 days.
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Research is funded by the Global Disaster Preparedness Center (GDPC) of the American Red Cross, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center, and the Global Heat Health Information Network (GHHIN).
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All authors (D. Arsenović, Z. Lužanin, D. Milošević, J. Dunjić, V. Nikitović, S. Savić) contributed to the study conception, material preparation, and manuscript preparation. Study concept was performed by D. Arsenović, S. Savić, and Z. Lužanin. Mortality data collection was performed by V. Nikitović. Temperature data was performed by D. Milošević and J. Dunjić. Statistical analysis was performed by Z. Lužanin, D. Arsenović, and S. Savić. The first draft of the manuscript was written by. D. Arsenović, S. Savić, D. Milošević, and J. Dunjić, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Arsenović, D., Lužanin, Z., Milošević, D. et al. The effects of summer ambient temperature on total mortality in Serbia. Int J Biometeorol 67, 1581–1589 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-023-02520-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-023-02520-5