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Spatial and interdecadal differences in climatic suitability for winter wheat in China from 1985 to 2014

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Abstract 

The evident climate jump after 2000 in China may have greatly influenced the production of winter wheat, which is one of the nation’s major grain crops. To evaluate the impacts of climate change on winter wheat production and identify the climatic factors primarily responsible, we used daily meteorological data from 2244 stations and integrated indicators to examine the decadal changes in the potential plantable zone (PPZ), growth periods, and climatic suitability for winter wheat in China from 1985 to 1999 and from 2000 to 2014. The results showed the following: (1) The PPZ has decreased by approximately 9%, and the main reason may be the increased frequency of extreme cold events in northern China from 2000 to 2014. (2) In most of the PPZ, the suitable sowing date has been delayed, the potential maturity date has advanced, and total days during the potential growing season have significantly decreased because of the increasing temperature. (3) The suitable area and optimal area of winter wheat have significantly decreased by 9% and 13%, respectively. The changes in climatic suitability are affected by both temperature and radiation in the north, whereas the impact is more from precipitation in the south. The climate may be changing in a direction unsuitable for winter wheat. As global warming and climate extremes intensify in the future, winter wheat production may become more challenging, and adequate measures should be adopted to guarantee reliable and high yields.

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Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank two anonymous reviewers for their very helpful comments and suggestions. The authors thank Zhijuan Liu of China Agricultural University for suggestions and assistance.

Funding

This work was supported by the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, CAS (Grant No. ZDBS-LY-DQC010), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41876012 and 42175045), and the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDB42000000).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Ke-xin Li & Fei Zheng

  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Ke-xin Li

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Correspondence to Fei Zheng.

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Article Highlights

• The decreased extreme minimum temperature in northern China decreased the potential plantable zone of winter wheat in China.

• The length of the growth period shortens more in the regions of high latitudes and high altitudes.

• The decadal changes in winter wheat climatic suitability are dominated by temperature and radiation in northern China and by temperature and precipitation in southern China.

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Li, Kx., Zheng, F. Spatial and interdecadal differences in climatic suitability for winter wheat in China from 1985 to 2014. Int J Biometeorol 66, 2091–2104 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-022-02343-w

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