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A simple high-resolution heat-stress forecast for Seoul, Korea: coupling climate information with an operational numerical weather prediction model

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Abstract

To provide a simple high-resolution heat-stress forecast for Seoul, Korea, we coupled a high-resolution climate simulation (25 m grid spacing) for an average heat day with the operational forecasting model (5 km grid spacing). Thereby, we accounted for the meso-scale weather conditions and local-scale air temperature induced by land cover and the urban heat island effect. Moreover, we estimated the impacts of heat events using heat-related mortality rate. Applying the simple high-resolution heat-stress forecast for July and August 2016, we detected a substantial spatial variability in maximum air temperature and heat-related mortality rate in Seoul. The evaluation of simulated maximum air temperature compared to observations revealed a small deviation (MB = 0.11 K, RMSD = 1.40 K). Despite the limitation of using average conditions, it was an efficient way to identify particularly affected areas, neighbourhoods, and districts for releasing more location-specific heat-stress warnings.

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Funding

This research was supported by the “Research and Development for KMA Weather, Climate, and Earth System Services: Biometeorology” of the National Institute of Meteorological Sciences of the KMA.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Applied Meteorological Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, 33, Seohobuk-ro, Seogwipo-si, Jeju-do, 63568, Republic of Korea

    Britta Jänicke, Kyu Rang Kim & Changbum Cho

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  1. Britta Jänicke
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  2. Kyu Rang Kim
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  3. Changbum Cho
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Correspondence to Britta Jänicke.

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Jänicke, B., Kim, K.R. & Cho, C. A simple high-resolution heat-stress forecast for Seoul, Korea: coupling climate information with an operational numerical weather prediction model. Int J Biometeorol 64, 1197–1205 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-01893-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-01893-1

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