Abstract
Multi-city studies assessing the association between acute exposure to temperature and mortality in Latin American are limited. To analyze the short-term effect of changes in temperature (increase and decrease) on daily non-external and cardiovascular mortality from 1998 to 2014, in people 65 years old and over living in 10 metropolitan areas of Mexico. Analyses were performed through Poisson regression models with distributed lag non-linear models. Statistical comparison of minimum mortality temperature (MMT) and city-specific cutoffs of 24-h temperature mean values (5th/95th and 1st/99th percentiles) were used to obtain the mortality relative Risk (RR) for cold/hot and extreme cold/extreme hot, respectively, for the same day and lags of 0–3, 0–7, and 0–21 days. A meta-analysis was conducted to synthesize the estimates (RRpooled). Significant non-linear associations of temperature-mortality relation were found in U or inverted J shape. The best predictors of mortality associations with cold and heat were daily temperatures at lag 0–7 and lag 0–3, respectively. RRpooled of non-external causes was 6.3% (95%CI 2.7, 10.0) for cold and 10.2% (95%CI 4.4, 16.2) for hot temperatures. The RRpooled for cardiovascular mortality was 7.1% (95%CI 0.01, 14.7) for cold and 7.1% (95%CI 0.6, 14.0) for hot temperatures. Results suggest that, starting from the MMT, the changes in temperature are associated with an increased risk of non-external and specific causes of mortality in elderly people. Generally, heat effects on non-external and specific causes of mortality occur immediately, while cold effects occur within a few days and last longer.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Analitis A, Katsouyanni K, Biggeri A, Baccini M, Forsberg B, Bisanti L, Kirchmayer U, Ballester F, Cadum E, Goodman PG, Hojs A, Sunyer J, Tiittanen P, Michelozzi P (2008) Effects of cold weather on mortality: results from 15 European cities within the PHEWE project. Am J Epidemiol 168(12):1397–1408. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwn266
Baccini M, Kosatsky T, Analitis A, Anderson H, D’Ovidio M, Menne B, Michelozzi P, Biggeri A, PHEWE Collaborative Group (2011) Impact of heat on mortality in 15 European cities: attributable deaths under different weather scenarios. J Epidemiol Community Health 65(1):64–70. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.2008.085639
Barnett A (2007) Temperature and cardiovascular deaths in the US elderly. Epidemiology 18(3):369–372. https://doi.org/10.1097/01.ede.0000257515.34445.a0
Basu R (2009) High ambient temperature and mortality: a review of epidemiologic studies from 2001 to 2008. Environ Health 8. https://doi.org/10.1186/1476-069X-8-40
Basu R, Ostro B (2008) A multicounty analysis identifying the populations vulnerable to mortality associated with high ambient temperature in California. Am J Epidemiol 168(6):632–637. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwn170
Bouchama A, Dehbi M, Mohamed G, Matthies F, Shoukri M, Menne B (2007) Prognostic factors in heat wave-related deaths: a meta-analysis. Arch Intern Med 167:2170. https://doi.org/10.1001/archinte.167.20.ira70009
Braga A, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J (2002) The effect of weather on respiratory and cardiovascular deaths in 12 U.S. cities. Environ Health Perspect 110(9):859–863. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.02110859
Bunker A, Wildenhain J, Vandenbergh A, Henschke N, Rocklöv J, Hajat S, Sauerborn R (2016) Effects of air temperature on climate-sensitive mortality and morbidity outcomes in the elderly; a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological evidence. EBioMedicine 6(April):258–268. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ebiom.2016.02.034
Campos-Nonato I, Hernández-Barrera L, Pedroza-Tobías A, Medina C, Barquera S (2018) Hypertension in Mexican adults: prevalence, diagnosis and type of treatment. Ensanut MC 2016. Salud Publica de Mexico 60(3):233–243. https://doi.org/10.21149/8813
Carreras H, Zanobetti A, Koutrakis P (2015) Effect of daily temperature range on respiratory health in Argentina and its modification by impaired socio-economic conditions and PM10 exposures. Environ Pollut 206(November):175–182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2015.06.037
Chan E, Goggins W, Kim J, Griffiths S (2012) A study of intracity variation of temperature-related mortality and socioeconomic status among the Chinese population in Hong Kong. J Epidemiol Community Health 66(4):322–327. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.2008.085167
Dang T, Seposo X, Duc N, Thang T, An D, Hang L, Long T, Loan B, Honda Y (2016) Characterizing the relationship between temperature and mortality in tropical and subtropical cities: a distributed lag non-linear model analysis in hue, Viet Nam, 2009-2013. Glob Health Action 9(1):28738. https://doi.org/10.3402/gha.v9.28738
Dear K, McMichael A (2011) The health impacts of cold homes and fuel poverty. BMJ. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.d2807
DGIS (2016) México: Bases de Datos Sobre Defunciones. 2016. http://www.dgis.salud.gob.mx/contenidos/basesdedatos/std_defunciones.html
Gasparrini A, Armstrong B (2010) Time series analysis on the health effects of temperature: advancements and limitations. Environ Res 110:633–638. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2010.06.005
Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Kenward M (2010) Distributed lag non-linear models. Stat Med 29(21):2224–2234. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.3940
Gasparrini A, Guo Y, Hashizume M, Lavigne E, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J, Tobias A, Tong S, Rocklöv J, Forsberg B, Leone M, de Sario M, Bell ML, Guo YLL, Wu CF, Kan H, Yi SM, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M, Saldiva PHN, Honda Y, Kim H, Armstrong B (2015) Mortality risk attributable to and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study. Lancet 386(9991):369–375. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62114-0
Goggins W, Ren C, Ng E, Yang C, Chan E (2013) Effect modification of the association between meteorological variables and mortality by urban climatic conditions in the Tropical City of Kaohsiung, Taiwan. Geospat Health 8(1):37–44. https://doi.org/10.4081/gh.2013.52
Guo Y, Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Li S, Tawatsupa B, Tobias A, Lavigne E, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M, Leone M, Pan X, Tong S, Tian L, Kim H, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Guo YLL, Wu CF, Punnasiri K, Yi SM, Michelozzi P, Saldiva PHN, Williams G (2014) Global variation in the effects of ambient temperature on mortality: a systematic evaluation. Epidemiology 25(6):781–789. https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000000165
Guo Y, Punnasiri K, Tong S (2012) Effects of temperature on mortality in Chiang Mai City, Thailand: a time series study. Environ Health: A Global Access Science Source 11(1):36. https://doi.org/10.1186/1476-069X-11-36
Heisler GM, Brazel AJ (2019) The climate system. In: Hall MHP, Balogh SB (eds) Understanding urban ecology: An interdisciplinary systems approach. Springer International Publishing, Cham, pp 137–173. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-11259-2_7
Higgins J, Thompson S (2002) Quantifying heterogeneity in a meta-analysis. Stat Med 21(11):1539–1558. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.1186
Higgins J, Thompson S, Deeks J, Altman D (2003) Measuring inconsistency in meta-analyses. BMJ 327(7414):557–560. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.327.7414.557
INEGI (2010) México: Población Rural y Urbana. 2010. http://cuentame.inegi.org.mx/poblacion/rur_urb.aspx?tema=P
INEGI (2017) México: Recursos Naturales.- Clima. 2017. http://www.inegi.org.mx/geo/contenidos/recnat/clima/
Joe L, Hoshiko S, Dobraca D, Jackson R, Smorodinsky S, Smith D, Harnly M (2016) Mortality during a large-scale heatwave by place, demographic group, internal and external causes of death, and building climate zone. Int J Environ Res Public Health 13(3):299. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph13030299
Khanjani N, Bahrampour A (2013) Temperature and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in desert climate. A case study of Kerman, Iran. Iranian Journal of Environmental Health Science and Engineering 10(11):11. https://doi.org/10.1186/1735-2746-10-11
Kim J, Lim Y, Kim H (2014) Outdoor temperature changes and emergency department visits for asthma in Seoul, Korea: a time-series study. Environ Res 135(November):15–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2014.07.032
Li Y, Ma Z, Zheng C, Shang Y (2015) Ambient temperature enhanced acute cardiovascular-respiratory mortality effects of PM2.5 in Beijing, China. Int J Biometeorol 59(12):1761–1770. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-015-0984-z
Lin Y, Ho T, Wang Y (2011) Mortality risk associated with temperature and prolonged temperature extremes in elderly populations in Taiwan. Environ Res 111(8):1156–1163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2011.06.008
Liu M, Wang W, Zhou M (2013) Trend analysis on the mortality of cardiovascular diseases from 2004 to 2010 in China. Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi 34(10):985–988 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24377992
Lucas R, Epstein Y, Kjellstrom T (2014) Excessive occupational heat exposure: a significant ergonomic challenge and health risk for current and future workers. Extreme Physiology and Medicine 3. https://doi.org/10.1186/2046-7648-3-14
Ma W, Chen R, Kan H (2014) Temperature-related mortality in 17 large Chinese cities: how heat and cold affect mortality in China. Environ Res 134:127–133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2014.07.007
McMichael A, Wilkinson P, Kovats R, Pattenden S, Hajat S, Armstrong B, Vajanapoom N et al (2008) International study of temperature, heat and urban mortality: the ‘ISOTHURM’ project. Int J Epidemiol 37(5):1121–1131. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyn086
Mostofsky E, Wilker E, Schwartz J, Zanobetti A, Gold D, Wellenius G, Mittleman M (2014) Short-term changes in ambient temperature and risk of ischemic stroke. Cerebrovascular Diseases Extra 4(1):9–18. https://doi.org/10.1159/000357352
O’Neill M, Hajat S, Zanobetti A, Ramirez-Aguilar M, Schwartz J (2005) Impact of control for air pollution and respiratory epidemics on the estimated associations of temperature and daily mortality. Int J Biometeorol 50(2):121–129. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-005-0269-z
Ou C, Song Y, Yang J, Chau P, Yang L, Chen P, Wong C (2013) Excess winter mortality and cold temperatures in a Subtropical City, Guangzhou, China. Edited by Qinghua Sun. PLoS One 8(10):e77150. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0077150
Pepin NC, Seidel DJ (2005) A global comparison of surface and free-air temperatures at high elevations. Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres 110(3):1–15. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005047
Pinheiro S, Saldiva P, Schwartz J, Zanobetti A (2014) Isolated and synergistic effects of PM10and average temperature on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. Revista de Saude Publica 48(6):881–888. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0034-8910.2014048005218
Ramanathan V, Feng Y (2009) Air pollution, greenhouse gases and climate change: global and regional perspectives. Atmos Environ 43(1):37–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.09.063
REDMET (2017) México City (MX). Bases de Datos - Red de Meteorología y Radiación Solar. 2017. http://www.aire.cdmx.gob.mx/default.php?opc=‘aKBi’
Romero-Lankao P, Qin H, Borbor-Cordova M (2013) Exploration of health risks related to air pollution and temperature in three Latin American cities. Soc Sci Med 83(April):110–118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2013.01.009
Romieu I, Gouveia N, Cifuentes L, de LA, Junger W, Vera J, Strappa V et al (2012) Multicity study of air pollution and mortality in Latin America (the ESCALA study). Research Report (Health Effects Institute) 171(October):5–86 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23311234
Sanderson M, Arbuthnott K, Kovats S, Hajat S, Falloon P (2017) The use of climate information to estimate future mortality from high ambient temperature: a systematic literature review. Edited by Juan A Añel. PLoS ONE 12:e0180369. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0180369
Seltenrich N (2015) Between extremes: health effects of heat and cold. Environ Health Perspect 123:A275–A280. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.123-A275
Seposo XT, Dang TN, Honda Y (2016) Effect modification in the temperature extremes by mortality subgroups among the tropical cities of the Philippines. Glob Health Action 9:31500. https://doi.org/10.3402/gha.v9.31500
Son J, Lee J, Anderson G, Bell M (2011) Vulnerability to temperature-related mortality in Seoul, Korea. Environ Res Lett 6(3):034027. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034027
Song X, Wang S, Hu Y, Yue M, Zhang T, Liu Y, Tian J, Shang K (2017) Impact of ambient temperature on morbidity and mortality: an overview of reviews. Sci Total Environ 586(May):241–254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.01.212
Stewart I, Oke T (2012) Local climate zones for urban temperature studies. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93(12):1879–1900. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00019.1
Tobias A, Armstrong B, Gasparrini A (2017) Brief report: investigating uncertainty in the minimum mortality temperature: methods and application to 52 Spanish cities. Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass) 28(1):72–76. https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000000567
Tong S, Wang X, Yu W, Chen D, Wang X (2014) The impact of heatwaves on mortality in Australia: a multicity study. BMJ Open 4(2):e003579. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2013-003579
UNDESA Population Division (2015) Population 2030: demographic challenges and opportunities for sustainable development planning. United Nations. www.unpopulation.org
Wang Z, Liu Y, Hu M, Pan X, Shi J, Chen F, He K, Koutrakis P, Christiani D (2013) Acute health impacts of airborne particles estimated from satellite remote sensing. Environ Int 51(January):150–159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2012.10.011
Xinchuang X, Quansheng G, Shanfeng H, Xuezhen Z, Xunliang X, Guang Xu L (2016) Impact of high temperature on the mortality in summer of Wuhan, China. Environ Earth Sci 75(7):543. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-015-5216-7
Yu W, Guo Y, Ye X, Wang X, Huang C, Pan X, Tong S (2011) The effect of various temperature indicators on different mortality categories in a Subtropical City of Brisbane, Australia. Sci Total Environ 409(18):3431–3437. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.05.027
Yu W, Mengersen K, Wang X, Ye X, Guo Y, Pan X, Tong S (2012) Daily average temperature and mortality among the elderly: a meta-analysis and systematic review of epidemiological evidence. Int J Biometeorol 56:569–581. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-011-0497-3
Zhang Y, Li S, Pan X, Tong S, Jaakkola J, Gasparrini A, Guo Y, Wang S (2014) The effects of ambient temperature on cerebrovascular mortality: an epidemiologic study in four climatic zones in China. Environmental Health: A Global Access Science Source 13(1):24. https://doi.org/10.1186/1476-069X-13-24
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the National Meteorological Service (SMN-México) for providing meteorological data.
Funding
The study was supported by the fund of the Secretary of Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARNAT) and the Mexican Council of Science and Technology (CONACYT), grant SEMARNAT-2014-1-249465.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Hurtado-Díaz, M., Cruz, J.C., Texcalac-Sangrador, J.L. et al. Short-term effects of ambient temperature on non-external and cardiovascular mortality among older adults of metropolitan areas of Mexico. Int J Biometeorol 63, 1641–1650 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-019-01778-y
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-019-01778-y