International Journal of Biometeorology

, Volume 62, Issue 6, pp 939–948 | Cite as

Climatically driven yield variability of major crops in Khakassia (South Siberia)

  • Elena A. ВabushkinaEmail author
  • Liliana V. Belokopytova
  • Dina F. Zhirnova
  • Santosh K. Shah
  • Tatiana V. Kostyakova
Original Paper


We investigated the variability of yield of the three main crop cultures in the Khakassia Republic: spring wheat, spring barley, and oats. In terms of yield values, variability characteristics, and climatic response, the agricultural territory of Khakassia can be divided into three zones: (1) the Northern Zone, where crops yield has a high positive response to the amount of precipitation, May–July, and a moderately negative one to the temperatures of the same period; (2) the Central Zone, where crops yield depends mainly on temperatures; and (3) the Southern Zone, where climate has the least expressed impact on yield. The dominant pattern in the crops yield is caused by water stress during periods of high temperatures and low moisture supply with heat stress as additional reason. Differences between zones are due to combinations of temperature latitudinal gradient, precipitation altitudinal gradient, and the presence of a well-developed hydrological network and the irrigational system as moisture sources in the Central Zone. More detailed analysis shows differences in the climatic sensitivity of crops during phases of their vegetative growth and grain development and, to a lesser extent, during harvesting period. Multifactor linear regression models were constructed to estimate climate- and autocorrelation-induced variability of the crops yield. These models allowed prediction of the possibility of yield decreasing by at least 2–11% in the next decade due to increasing of the regional summer temperatures.


Crops yield variability Temperature Precipitation Hydrothermal coefficient South Siberia 


Funding information

The financial support was provided by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research and the Republic of Khakassia (project 16-44-190140) and by the Russian Humanitarian Science Foundation and the Krasnoyarsk Regional Fund for Support of Scientific and Technical Activity (project 16-16-24015).

Supplementary material

484_2017_1496_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (655 kb)
ESM 1 (PDF 654 kb)


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Copyright information

© ISB 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Elena A. Вabushkina
    • 1
    Email author
  • Liliana V. Belokopytova
    • 1
  • Dina F. Zhirnova
    • 1
  • Santosh K. Shah
    • 2
  • Tatiana V. Kostyakova
    • 1
  1. 1.Khakass Technical InstituteSiberian Federal UniversityAbakanRussia
  2. 2.Birbal Sahni Institute of PalaeosciencesLucknowIndia

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