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International Journal of Biometeorology

, Volume 60, Issue 11, pp 1611–1613 | Cite as

Long-term linear trends mask phenological shifts

  • Yongshuo H FuEmail author
  • Shilong PiaoEmail author
  • Philippe Ciais
  • Mengtian Huang
  • Annette Menzel
  • Marc Peaucelle
  • Shushi Peng
  • Yang Song
  • Yann Vitasse
  • Zhenzhong Zeng
  • Hongfang Zhao
  • Guiyun Zhou
  • Josep Peñuelas
  • Ivan A Janssens
Letter to the Editor

Climate warming has substantially advanced the timing of leaf unfolding, while the temperature sensitivity of leaf unfolding (ST) was significantly reduced over the past three decades according to our recent study (Fu et al. 2015). We are very happy to see that the article from Wang et al. (2016) confirmed these findings using a 15-year window, despite using only 927 species-site combinations, which are about one sixth of the species sites (5472) used in our study. However, we cannot agree with the highlighted conclusion that the significant decrease in ST using the 15-year window is not sustained when examining longer-term phenological responses to climate warming. On the contrary, we argue that the long-term linear trends may mask short-term phenological shifts.

According to the IPCC AR5, the period since the 1980s was very likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 800 years in the Northern Hemisphere (IPCC, Climate Change 2013); we therefore investigated the phenological...

Keywords

Climate Warming Temperature Sensitivity Spring Leaf Phenological Data Leaf Phenology 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Reference

  1. Fu YH, Zhao H, Piao S, Peaucelle M, Peng S, Zhou G et al (2015) Declining global warming effects on the phenology of spring leaf unfolding. Nature 526:104–107CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Iler AM, Høye TT, Schmidt NM, Inouye DW (2013) Long-term trends mask variation in the direction and magnitude of short-term phenological shifts. Am J Bot 100:1398–1406CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. IPCC, Climate Change (2013) The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (Cambridge University Press, 2013)Google Scholar
  4. Rutishauser T, Luterbacher J, Defila C, Frank D, Wanner H (2008) Swiss spring plant phenology 2007: extremes, a multi-century perspective, and changes in temperature sensitivity. Geophys Res Lett 35:L5703CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Wang H, Rutishauser T, Tao Z, Zhong S, Ge, Q, Dai J (2016) Impacts of global warming on phenology of spring leaf unfolding remain stable in the long run.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© ISB 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Yongshuo H Fu
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
    Email author
  • Shilong Piao
    • 1
    • 2
    • 4
    • 5
    Email author
  • Philippe Ciais
    • 6
  • Mengtian Huang
    • 2
  • Annette Menzel
    • 7
    • 8
  • Marc Peaucelle
    • 6
  • Shushi Peng
    • 2
    • 6
  • Yang Song
    • 9
  • Yann Vitasse
    • 10
    • 11
    • 12
  • Zhenzhong Zeng
    • 2
  • Hongfang Zhao
    • 2
  • Guiyun Zhou
    • 13
  • Josep Peñuelas
    • 14
    • 15
  • Ivan A Janssens
    • 3
  1. 1.Department of EcologyPeking UniversityBeijingChina
  2. 2.Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental SciencesPeking UniversityBeijingChina
  3. 3.Centre of Excellence PLECO (Plant and Vegetation Ecology), Department of BiologyUniversity of AntwerpWilrijkBelgium
  4. 4.Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity, Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  5. 5.Center for Excellence in Tibetan Earth ScienceChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  6. 6.Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’EnvironnementCEA CNRS UVSQGif-sur-YvetteFrance
  7. 7.EcoclimatologyTechnische Universität MünchenFreisingGermany
  8. 8.Institute for Advanced StudyTechnische Universität MünchenGarchingGermany
  9. 9.Department of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of IllinoisUrbanaUSA
  10. 10.Institute of GeographyUniversity of NeuchatelNeuchatelSwitzerland
  11. 11.WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape ResearchNeuchatelSwitzerland
  12. 12.WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Group Mountain EcosystemsDavosSwitzerland
  13. 13.School of Resources and EnvironmentUniversity of Electronic Science and Technology of ChinaChengduChina
  14. 14.CREAFBarcelonaSpain
  15. 15.CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UABBarcelonaSpain

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