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Association between flood and the morbidity of bacillary dysentery in Zibo City, China: a symmetric bidirectional case-crossover study

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Abstract

This study examined the relationship between daily morbidity of bacillary dysentery and flood in 2007 in Zibo City, China, using a symmetric bidirectional case-crossover study. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) on the basis of multivariate model and stratified analysis at different lagged days were calculated to estimate the risk of flood on bacillary dysentery. A total of 902 notified bacillary dysentery cases were identified during the study period. The median of case distribution was 7-year-old and biased to children. Multivariable analysis showed that flood was associated with an increased risk of bacillary dysentery, with the largest OR of 1.849 (95 % CI 1.229–2.780) at 2-day lag. Gender-specific analysis showed that there was a significant association between flood and bacillary dysentery among males only (ORs >1 from lag 1 to lag 5), with the strongest lagged effect at 2-day lag (OR = 2.820, 95 % CI 1.629–4.881), and the result of age-specific indicated that youngsters had a slightly larger risk to develop flood-related bacillary dysentery than older people at one shorter lagged day (OR = 2.000, 95 % CI 1.128–3.546 in youngsters at lag 2; OR = 1.879, 95 % CI 1.069–3.305 in older people at lag 3). Our study has confirmed that there is a positive association between flood and the risk of bacillary dysentery in selected study area. Males and youngsters may be the vulnerable and high-risk populations to develop the flood-related bacillary dysentery. Results from this study will provide recommendations to make available strategies for government to deal with negative health outcomes due to floods.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 program) (Grant No. 2012CB955502) and Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province for the Joint Specific Program (Grant No. ZR2015HL100). We are deeply grateful for the Shandong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Meteorological Information Center of China to share the data needed for the study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, No. 44 Wenhuaxi Road, Jinan, 250012, China

    Feifei Zhang, Zhidong Liu, Caixia Zhang & Baofa Jiang

  2. Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan, Shandong Province, 250012, China

    Feifei Zhang, Zhidong Liu, Caixia Zhang & Baofa Jiang

  3. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Taishan Medical University, Taian, Shandong Province, 271016, China

    Guoyong Ding

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  1. Feifei Zhang
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  2. Guoyong Ding
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  5. Baofa Jiang
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Correspondence to Baofa Jiang.

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Zhang, F., Ding, G., Liu, Z. et al. Association between flood and the morbidity of bacillary dysentery in Zibo City, China: a symmetric bidirectional case-crossover study. Int J Biometeorol 60, 1919–1924 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-016-1178-z

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