Abstract
Assessing and responding to health risk of climate change is important because of its impact on the natural and societal ecosystems. More frequent and severe flood events will occur in China due to climate change. Given that population is projected to increase, more people will be vulnerable to flood events, which may lead to an increased incidence of HAV infection in the future. This population-based study is going to project the future health burden of HAV infection associated with flood events in Huai River Basin of China. The study area covered four cities of Anhui province in China, where flood events were frequent. Time-series adjusted Poisson regression model was developed to quantify the risks of flood events on HAV infection based on the number of daily cases during summer seasons from 2005 to 2010, controlling for other meteorological variables. Projections of HAV infection in 2020 and 2030 were estimated based on the scenarios of flood events and demographic data. Poisson regression model suggested that compared with the periods without flood events, the risks of severe flood events for HAV infection were significant (OR = 1.28, 95 % CI 1.05–1.55), while risks were not significant from moderate flood events (OR = 1.16, 95 % CI 0.72–1.87) and mild flood events (OR = 1.14, 95 % CI 0.87–1.48). Using the 2010 baseline data and the flood event scenarios (one severe flood event), increased incidence of HAV infection were estimated to be between 0.126/105 and 0.127/105 for 2020. Similarly, the increased HAV infection incidence for 2030 was projected to be between 0.382/105 and 0.399/105. Our study has, for the first time, quantified the increased incidence of HAV infection that will result from flood events in Anhui, China, in 2020 and 2030. The results have implications for public health preparation for developing public health responses to reduce HAV infection during future flood events.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Auld H, MacIver D, Klaassen J (2004) Heavy rainfall and waterborne disease outbreaks: the Walkerton example. J Toxicol Environ Health Part A 67(20–22):1879–1887. doi:10.1080/15287390490493475
Berge JJ, Drennan DP, Jacobs RJ, Jakins A, Meyerhoff AS, Stubblefield W, Weinberg M (2000) The cost of hepatitis a infections in American adolescents and adults in 1997. Hepatol (Baltimore, Md) 31(2):469–473. doi:10.1002/hep.510310229
Bose M, Bose S, Saikia A, Medhi S, Deka M (2015) Molecular epidemiology of hepatitis a virus infection in Northeast India. J Med Virol 87(7):1218–1224. doi:10.1002/jmv.24168
Campbell-Lendrum D, Woodruff R (2007) Climate change:quantifying the health impact at national and local levels. In: environmental burden of disease series no. 14. World Health Organization, Geneva, p. 66
China Meteorological Administration (2009) Precipitation projection in Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 http://www.cma.gov.cn/en2014/ Accessed 1 Aug 2015
China Ministry of Water Resources (2002) Notice of the Ministry of water resources on the strengthening of the construction of flood control suggestions for Huaihe basin from 2001 to 2010 [article in Chinese] http://www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2002/content_61908.htm. Accessed 1 May 2015
Chou WC, Wu JL, Wang YC, Huang H, Sung FC, Chuang CY (2010) Modeling the impact of climate variability on diarrhea-associated diseases in Taiwan (1996-2007). Sci Total Environ 409(1):43–51. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2010.09.001
Curriero FC, Patz JA, Rose JB, Lele S (2001) The association between extreme precipitation and waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States, 1948-1994. Am J Public Health 91(8):1194–1199
D’Souza RM, Becker NG, Hall G, Moodie KB (2004) Does ambient temperature affect foodborne disease? Epidemiology 15(1):86–92. doi:10.1097/01.ede.0000101021.03453.3e
de Man H, van den Berg HH, Leenen EJ, Schijven JF, Schets FM, van der Vliet JC, van Knapen F, de Roda Husman AM (2014) Quantitative assessment of infection risk from exposure to waterborne pathogens in urban floodwater. Water Res 48:90–99. doi:10.1016/j.watres.2013.09.022
Ding G, Gao L, Li X, Zhou M, Liu Q, Ren H, Jiang B (2014) A mixed method to evaluate burden of malaria due to flooding and waterlogging in Mengcheng County, China: a case study. PLoS One 9(5):e97520. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0097520
Ding G, Zhang Y, Gao L, Ma W, Li X, Liu J, Liu Q, Jiang B (2013) Quantitative analysis of burden of infectious diarrhea associated with floods in northwest of anhui province, China: a mixed method evaluation. PLoS One 8(6):e65112. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0065112
Ding Y, Zhang J (2009) Chapter 9, the definition and classification of flood disaster. In: Riainstorm and Flood, p 290
Drayna P, McLellan SL, Simpson P, Li S-H, Gorelick MH (2010) Association between rainfall and pediatric emergency department visits for acute gastrointestinal illness. Environ Health Perspect 118(10):1439–1443. doi:10.1289/ehp.0901671
Duclos P, Vidonne O, Beuf P, Perray P, Stoebner A (1991) Flash flood disaster–Nimes, France, 1988. Eur J Epidemiol 7(4):365–371
Eickhoff T, Gershon A (1995) Discussion: who should receive hepatitis a vaccine? A strategy for controlling hepatitis a in the United States. J Infect Dis 171(Suppl 1):S73–S77
Few R, Ahern M, Matthies F, Kovats S (2004) Floods, health and climate change: A strategic review. Working Paper (63)
Gao L, Zhang Y, Ding G, Liu Q, Zhou M, Li X, Jiang B (2014) Meteorological variables and bacillary dysentery cases in Changsha City, China. AmJTrop Med Hyg 90(4):697–704. doi:10.4269/ajtmh.13-0198
Gregory PJ, Johnson SN, Newton AC, Ingram JS (2009) Integrating pests and pathogens into the climate change/food security debate. J Exp Bot 60(10):2827–2838. doi:10.1093/jxb/erp080
Guha-Sapir D, Below R, Hoyois P (2011) The International Disaster Database www.emdat.be Accessed 1 December 2013
Hau CH, Hien TT, Tien NT, Khiem HB, Sac PK, Nhung VT, Larasati RP, Laras K, Putri MP, Doss R, Hyams KC, Corwin AL (1999) Prevalence of enteric hepatitis a and E viruses in the Mekong River delta region of Vietnam. AmJTrop Med Hyg 60(2):277–280
Hollinger FB, Ticehurst JR (1996) Hepatitis a virus. In: Knipe DM, PMH (eds) Fields virology, 3rd edn. Lippincott Williams & Wilkins USA, Philadelphia, Lippincott -Raven, pp. 735–782
Karimi A, Mortazaei S, Moradi MT (2015) High prevalence of symptomatic hepatitis A Infection in Rural Area of Chaharmahal VA Bakhtiari Province, Iran. J Clin Diagn Res JCDR 9(2):DC01–DC03. doi:10.7860/jcdr/2015/9798.5515
Kelly-Hope LA, Alonso WJ, Thiem VD, Anh DD, do Canh G, Lee H, Smith DL, Miller MA (2007) Geographical distribution and risk factors associated with enteric diseases in Vietnam. AmJTrop Med Hyg 76(4):706–712
Kim JY, Lee H, Lee JE, Chung M-S, Ko GP (2013) Identification of human and animal fecal contamination after rainfall in the Han River, Korea. Microbes Environ 28(2):187–194. doi:10.1264/jsme2.ME12187
Kittigul L, Uthaisin A, Ekchaloemkiet S, Utrarachkij F, Luksamijarulkul P (2006) Detection and characterization of hepatitis a virus in water samples in Thailand. J Appl Microbiol 100(6):1318–1323. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2672.2006.02876.x
Koelle K, Rodo X, Pascual M, Yunus M, Mostafa G (2005) Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics. Nature 436(7051):696–700. doi:10.1038/nature03820
Kondo H, Seo N, Yasuda T, Hasizume M, Koido Y, Ninomiya N, Yamamoto Y (2002) Post-flood–infectious diseases in Mozambique. Prehospital Disaster Med 17(3):126–133
Kouadio IK, Aljunid S, Kamigaki T, Hammad K, Oshitani H (2012) Infectious diseases following natural disasters: prevention and control measures. Expert Rev Anti-Infect Ther 10(1):95–104. doi:10.1586/eri.11.155
Kovats RS, Haines A (2005) Global climate change and health: recent findings and future steps. CMAJ: Canadian Med Assoc J J Assoc med canadienne 172(4):501–502. doi:10.1503/cmaj.050020
Lemon SM (1997) Type a viral hepatitis: epidemiology, diagnosis, and prevention. Clin Chem 43(8 Pt 2):1494–1499
Liu AQ, MacIver D, Auld H, Charron D, Fenech A, Klaassen J, Hansell R (2003) Impact of excessive rainfall on waterborne diseases in Southern Ontario: the Walkerton case study. In: Fenech A, MacIver D, Auld H (eds) Integrated mapping assessment. Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, pp. 43–54
Liu X, Jiang B, Gu W, Liu Q (2011) Temporal trend and climate factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome epidemic in Shenyang City, China. BMC Infect Dis 11:331. doi:10.1186/1471-2334-11-331
Ma SL, Tang QL, Liu HW, He J, Gao SH (2013) Correlation analysis for the attack of bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors based on the Chinese medicine theory of Yunqi and the medical-meteorological forecast model. Chinese J Integr Med 19(3):182–186. doi:10.1007/s11655-012-1239-z
Martens WJ (1998) Health impacts of climate change and ozone depletion: an ecoepidemiologic modeling approach. Environ Health Perspect 106(Suppl 1):241–251
Massad E, Forattini OP (1998) Modelling the temperature sensitivity of some physiological parameters of epidemiologic significance. Ecosyst Health 4(2):119–129. doi:10.1046/j.1526-0992.1998.00079.x
McMichael AJ, Campbell-Lendrum DH, Corvalán CF, Ebi KL, Githeko AK, Scheraga JD, Woodward A (2003) Climate change and human health risks and responses. World Health Organization, Geneva
Meinshausen M, Smith SJ, Calvin K, Daniel JS, Kainuma MLT, Lamarque JF, Matsumoto K, Montzka SA, Raper SCB, Riahi K, Thomson A, Velders GJM, van Vuuren DPP (2011) The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Clim Chang 109(1–2):213–241. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z
Milly PC, Wetherald RT, Dunne KA, Delworth TL (2002) Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate. Nature 415(6871):514–517. doi:10.1038/415514a
Ministry of Health of the People’s Republic of China (2006) Emergency events and regulation of the notifiable disease surveillance system [Article in Chinese]. http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2006-09/08/content_382018.htm. Accessed 22 Dec2014
Moors E, Singh T, Siderius C, Balakrishnan S, Mishra A (2013) Climate change and waterborne diarrhoea in Northern India: impacts and adaptation strategies. Sci Total Environ 468-469(Suppl):S139–S151. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.07.021
National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People’s Republic of China (2009) Diagnostic criteria of viral hepatitis A [Article in Chinese]. http://www.moh.gov.cn/zwgkzt/s9491/200907/41984.shtml. Accessed 13 Oct 2015
National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People’s Republic of China (2015) National notifiable disease report of 2014. http://www.nhfpc.gov.cn/jkj/s3578/201502/847c041a3bac4c3e844f17309be0cabd.shtml. Accessed 7 April 2015
National Meteorological Information Center (2011) Daily surface meteorological data http://www.escience.gov.cn/metdata/page/index.html. Accessed 16 June 2013
Ngaosuwankul N, Thippornchai N, Yamashita A, Vargas RE, Tunyong W, Mahakunkijchareon Y, Ikuta K, Singhasivanon P, Okabayashi T, Leaungwutiwong P (2013) Detection and characterization of enteric viruses in flood water from the 2011 thai flood. Jpn J Infect Dis 66(5):398–403
Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters, The Ministry of Water Resources of the People’s Republic of China (2011) Bulletin of flood and drought disasters in China 2005–2010. China WaterPower Press, Beijing
Palmer TN, Raisanen J (2002) Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate. Nature 415(6871):512–514. doi:10.1038/415512a
Patz JA, Vavrus SJ, Uejio CK, McLellan SL (2008) Climate change and waterborne disease risk in the Great Lakes region of the U.S. Am J Prev Med 35(5):451–458. doi:10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.026
Phanuwan C, Takizawa S, Oguma K, Katayama H, Yunika A, Ohgaki S (2006) Monitoring of human enteric viruses and coliform bacteria in waters after urban flood in Jakarta, Indonesia. Water Sci Technol 54(3):203. doi:10.2166/wst.2006.470
Poonawagul U, Warintrawat S, Snitbhan R, Kitisriwarapoj S, Chaiyakunt V, Foy HM (1995) Outbreak of hepatitis a in a college traced to contaminated water reservoir in cafeteria. South Asian J Trop Med Public Health 26(4):705–708
Sedyaningsih-Mamahit ER, Larasati RP, Laras K, Sidemen A, Sukri N, Sabaruddin N, Didi S, Saragih JM, Myint KS, Endy TP, Sulaiman A, Campbell JR, Corwin AL (2002) First documented outbreak of hepatitis E virus transmission in java, Indonesia. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 96(4):398–404
Semenza JC, Menne B (2009) Climate change and infectious diseases in Europe. Lancet Infect Dis 9(6):365–375. doi:10.1016/s1473-3099(09)70104-5
Severi E, Vennema H, Takkinen J, Lopalco PL, Coulombier D (2015) Hepatitis a outbreaks. Lancet Infect Dis 15(6):632–634. doi:10.1016/s1473-3099(15)00021-3
Singh RB, Hales S, de Wet N, Raj R, Hearnden M, Weinstein P (2001) The influence of climate variation and change on diarrheal disease in the Pacific Islands. Environ Health Perspect 109(2):155–159
Song L (2010) Yearbook of meteorological disasters in China [article in Chinese]. China Meteorological Press, Beijing
Taylor MB, Cox N, Vrey MA, Grabow WO (2001) The occurrence of hepatitis A and astroviruses in selected river and dam waters in South Africa. Water Res 35(11):2653–2660
Teklehaimanot HD, Lipsitch M, Teklehaimanot A, Schwartz J (2004) Weather-based prediction of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in epidemic-prone regions of Ethiopia I. Patterns of lagged weather effects reflect biological mechanisms. Malar J 3:41. doi:10.1186/1475-2875-3-41
Tufenkeji H (2000) Hepatitis A shifting epidemiology in the Middle East and Africa. Vaccine 18(Suppl 1):S65–S67
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division (2013) World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, DVD edition
Wade TJ, Sandhu SK, Levy D, Lee S, LeChevallier MW, Katz L, Colford JM Jr. (2004) Did a severe flood in the Midwest cause an increase in the incidence of gastrointestinal symptoms? Am J Epidemiol 159(4):398–405
Wangdi K, Singhasivanon P, Silawan T, Lawpoolsri S, White NJ, Kaewkungwal J (2010) Development of temporal modelling for forecasting and prediction of malaria infections using time-series and ARIMAX analyses: a case study in endemic districts of Bhutan. Malar J 9:251. doi:10.1186/1475-2875-9-251
World Health Organization (2000a) Global Alert and Response, Hepatitis A surveillance and control http://www.who.int/csr/disease/hepatitis/whocdscsredc2007/en/index4.html. Accessed 6 May 2015
World Health Organization (2000b) Hepatitis A. http://www.who.int/csr/disease/hepatitis/HepatitisA_whocdscsredc2000_7.pdf. Accessed Dec 30 2015
World Health Organization (2012) Hepatitis A http://www.wpro.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs_20120219_hepa/en/. Accessed 16 March 2015
Xia T, Nitschke M, Zhang Y, Shah P, Crabb S, Hansen A (2015) Traffic-related air pollution and health co-benefits of alternative transport in Adelaide, South Australia. Environ Int 74:281–290. doi:10.1016/j.envint.2014.10.004
Zhang Y, Bi P, Hiller JE (2008) Weather and the transmission of bacillary dysentery in Jinan, Northern China: a time-series analysis. Public Health Rep (Washington, DC: 1974) 123(1):61–66
Zhang Y, Bi P, Hiller JE (2012) Projected burden of disease for salmonella infection due to increased temperature in Australian temperate and subtropical regions. Environ Int 44:26–30. doi:10.1016/j.envint.2012.01.007
Zhang Y, Bi P, Hiller JE, Sun Y, Ryan P (2007) Climate variations and bacillary dysentery in northern and southern cities of China. J Infect 55(2):194–200. doi:10.1016/j.jinf.2006.12.002
Acknowledgments
We thank Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, National Meteorological Information Center of China sharing with us the data needed for this study.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Financial support
This study was supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (Grant No. 2012CB955502).
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Gao, L., Zhang, Y., Ding, G. et al. Projections of hepatitis A virus infection associated with flood events by 2020 and 2030 in Anhui Province, China. Int J Biometeorol 60, 1873–1884 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-016-1174-3
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-016-1174-3