International Journal of Biometeorology

, Volume 60, Issue 10, pp 1551–1561 | Cite as

Can we detect a nonlinear response to temperature in European plant phenology?

  • Susanne Jochner
  • Tim H. Sparks
  • Julia Laube
  • Annette Menzel
Original Paper

Abstract

Over a large temperature range, the statistical association between spring phenology and temperature is often regarded and treated as a linear function. There are suggestions that a sigmoidal relationship with definite upper and lower limits to leaf unfolding and flowering onset dates might be more realistic. We utilised European plant phenological records provided by the European phenology database PEP725 and gridded monthly mean temperature data for 1951–2012 calculated from the ENSEMBLES data set E-OBS (version 7.0). We analysed 568,456 observations of ten spring flowering or leafing phenophases derived from 3657 stations in 22 European countries in order to detect possible nonlinear responses to temperature. Linear response rates averaged for all stations ranged between −7.7 (flowering of hazel) and −2.7 days °C−1 (leaf unfolding of beech and oak). A lower sensitivity at the cooler end of the temperature range was detected for most phenophases. However, a similar lower sensitivity at the warmer end was not that evident. For only ∼14 % of the station time series (where a comparison between linear and nonlinear model was possible), nonlinear models described the relationship significantly better than linear models. Although in most cases simple linear models might be still sufficient to predict future changes, this linear relationship between phenology and temperature might not be appropriate when incorporating phenological data of very cold (and possibly very warm) environments. For these cases, extrapolations on the basis of linear models would introduce uncertainty in expected ecosystem changes.

Keywords

Climate change Europe Nonlinearity PEP725 Phenology Sigmoid Temperature response 

Supplementary material

484_2016_1146_MOESM1_ESM.docx (34 kb)
ESM 1(DOCX 33 kb)

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Copyright information

© ISB 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Susanne Jochner
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
  • Tim H. Sparks
    • 2
    • 3
    • 4
    • 5
  • Julia Laube
    • 2
    • 3
  • Annette Menzel
    • 2
    • 3
  1. 1.Physical Geography/Landscape Ecology and Sustainable Ecosystem DevelopmentCatholic University Eichstätt-IngolstadtEichstättGermany
  2. 2.Department of Ecology and Ecosystem Management, EcoclimatologyTechnische Universität MünchenFreisingGermany
  3. 3.Institute for Advanced StudyTechnische Universität MünchenGarchingGermany
  4. 4.Institute of ZoologyPoznań University of Life SciencesPoznańPoland
  5. 5.Sigma/Faculty of Engineering, Environment and ComputingCoventry UniversityCoventryUK

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