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Regional climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina

International Journal of Biometeorology volume 60, pages 1325–1340 (2016)Cite this article

Abstract

Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Mendoza, Argentina, the assessment of future scenarios for viticulture is of foremost relevance. In this context, it is important to understand how temperature increase and precipitation changes will impact on grapes, because of changes in grapevine phenology and suitability wine-growing regions must be understood as an indicator of climate change. The general objective is to classify the suitable areas of viticulture in Argentina for the current and future climate using the MM5 regional climate change simulations. The spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, annual rainfall, and some bioclimatic indices has been analyzed for the present (1970–1989) and future (2080–2099) climate under SRES A2 emission scenario. In general, according to projected average growing season temperature and Winkler index classification, the regional model estimates (i) a reduction of cool areas, (ii) a westward and southward displacement of intermediate and warm suitability areas, and (iii) the arise of new suitability regions (hot and very hot areas) over Argentina. In addition, an increase of annual accumulated precipitation is projected over the center-west of Argentina. Similar pattern of change is modeled for growing season, but with lower intensity. Furthermore, the evaluation of projected seasonal precipitation shows a little precipitation increase over Cuyo and center of Argentina in summer and a little precipitation decrease over Cuyo and northern Patagonia in winter. Results show that Argentina has a great potential for expansion into new suitable vineyard areas by the end of twenty-first century, particularly due to projected displacement to higher latitudes for most present suitability winegrowing regions. Even though main conclusions are based on one global-regional model downscaling, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in the Argentinean viticultural regions. It has been concluded that regional climate change simulations are an adequate methodology, and indeed, the MM5 regional model is an appropriate tool to be applied in viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina.

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Acknowledgments

We thank two anonymous reviewers for insightful and constructive comments. Particularly, the first author also thanks the postdoctoral fellowship at the University of Rennes 2 (France) in 2013, which has motivated the writing of this manuscript.

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Affiliations

  1. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA), Intendente Güiraldes 2160, Pabellón II, piso 2, Ciudad Universitaria, Buenos Aires, C1428EGA, Argentina

    María Fernanda Cabré & Mario Nuñez

  2. Instituto Franco Argentino de Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos (UMI IFAECI/CNRS), Buenos Aires, Argentina

    María Fernanda Cabré & Mario Nuñez

  3. Labotatoire LETG-Rennes-COSTEL, UMR6554 LETG du CNRS, Université Rennes 2, Place du Recteur Henri le Moal, 35000, Rennes, France

    Hervé Quénol

  4. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, (DCAO/FCEN), Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Mario Nuñez

Authors
  1. María Fernanda Cabré
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  2. Hervé Quénol
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  3. Mario Nuñez
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to María Fernanda Cabré.

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Fig. S2
figure 7

Sensitivity of the grape quality to temperature variability. Boundaries of suitable climates for wine production illustrating the “inverse U” curve that defines optimum temperatures for production of quality wine. Note that present climates may be above or below the optimum so that warming may increase quality in some regions and decrease quality in others. There is also plasticity dependent on variety (figure S1) and on variation in production techniques (From Schultz 2008) (GIF 168 kb)

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ESM 1

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Fig. S1

Grouping of climate-maturity base on phenological requirements for berry development to produce high to premium quality wine. This is based on examination of production in benchmark regions for each variety (From Jones 2008). (PSD 885 kb)

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Cabré, M.F., Quénol, H. & Nuñez, M. Regional climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina. Int J Biometeorol 60, 1325–1340 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-015-1126-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-015-1126-3

Keywords

  • Argentinean viticultural zoning
  • Bioclimatic indices
  • Regional climate change scenarios
  • MM5 regional model