Environmental risk factors and hotspot analysis of dengue distribution in Pakistan
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This study is an attempt to find out the factors responsible for sudden dengue outbreak in different cities of Pakistan during 2011. For this purpose, spatio-temporal distribution of dengue in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, and Karachi has been taken into account. According to the available data, the factors responsible for this spread includes climate covariates like rainfall, temperature, and wind speed; social covariates like population, and area of locality, and environmental risk factors like drainage pattern and geo-hydrological conditions. Reported dengue cases from localities and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) 90 m digital elevation model (DEM) of study areas have been processed for hotspots, regression model and stream density in the localities of high dengue incidence. The relationship of daily dengue incidence with climate covariates during the months of July–October of the study year is analyzed. Results show that each dry spell of 2–4 days provides suitable conditions for the development and survival of dengue vectors during the wet months of July and August in the areas of high stream density and population. Very few cases have been reported in July while higher number of cases reported in the months of August, September, until late October. Hotspot analysis highlights the areas of high dengue incidence while regression analysis shows the relationship between the population and the areas of localities with the dengue incidence.
KeywordsClimate covariates Dengue outbreak Monsoon season Population Social covariates Stream density
The authors wish to thank the National Institute of Health (NIH) Islamabad, Government of the Punjab (GoP), National Institute of Populational Studies (NIPS), and Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) for providing the important data necessary for this manuscript.
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