Although several studies have documented that latitude might be an effect modifier of the association between temperature and mortality, little is known about how much latitude modifies the temperature–mortality relationship. In this study, we examined this research question using a distributed lag non-linear model and meta-regression analysis based on data from 13 large cities of eastern US from the US National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study. We found that cold effects lasted about 1 month while hot effects were acute and short-term. Meta-regression analysis showed that latitude modified both the cold and hot effects with statistical significance. The cold effect decreased with the latitude increment, with −0.11 % change of mortality effect for 1° increment, while the hot effect increased with the latitude increment, with 0.18 % change of mortality effect for 1° increment. This finding indicates the importance of latitude on temperature-related mortality risk, which is helpful for city to develop localized effective adaptation strategy in the context of climate change.
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This study was partly funded by the Special Climate Change Research Program of China Meteorological Administration (No. CCSF201211) and the Guangdong Provincial Medical Research Foundation (No. C2012030).
Jianpeng Xiao and Ji Peng are co-first authors.
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Supplementary Figure S1
Relative risk of temperature on mortality by latitude for different lag period. a Cold effect, b hot effect (GIF 86 kb)
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Xiao, J., Peng, J., Zhang, Y. et al. How much does latitude modify temperature–mortality relationship in 13 eastern US cities?. Int J Biometeorol 59, 365–372 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-014-0848-y
- Distributed lag non-linear model