Abstract
Recent shifts in phenology reflect the biological response to current climate change. Aiming to enhance our understanding of phenological responses to climate change, we developed, calibrated and validated spatio-temporal models of first leaf date (FLD) for 20 broadleaved deciduous plants in China. Using daily meteorological data from the Chinese Meteorological Administration and the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) created using three IPCC scenarios (A2, A1B and B1), we described the FLD time series of each species over the past 50 years, extrapolating from these results to simulate estimated FLD changes for each species during the twenty-first century. Model validation suggests that our spatio-temporal models can simulate FLD accurately with R 2 (explained variance) >0.60. Model simulations show that, from 1952 to 2007, the FLD in China advanced at a rate of −1.14 days decade−1 on average. Furthermore, changes in FLD showed noticeable variation between regions, with clearer advances observed in the north than in the south of the country. The model indicates that the advances in FLD observed from 1952–2007 in China will continue over the twenty-first century, although significant differences among species and different climate scenarios are expected. The average trend of FLD advance in China during the twenty-first century is modeled as being −1.92 days decade−1 under the A2 scenario, −1.10 days decade−1 under the A1B scenario and −0.74 days decade−1 under the B2 scenario. The spatial pattern of FLD change for the period 2011–2099 is modeled as being similar but showing some difference from patterns in the 1952–2007 period. At the interspecific level, early-leafing species were found to show a greater advance in FLD, while species with larger distributions tended to show a weaker advance in FLD. These simulated changes in phenology may have significant implications for plant distribution as well as ecosystem structure and function.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bennie J, Kubin E, Wiltshire A et al (2010) Predicting spatial and temporal patterns of bud-burst and spring frost risk in north-west Europe: the implications of local adaptation to climate. Glob Chang Biol 16:1503–1514
Cesaraccio C, Spano D, Snyder RL et al (2004) Chilling and forcing model to predict bud-burst of crop and forest species. Agric For Meteorol 126:1–13
Chen X, Xu L (2012) Phenological responses of Ulmus pumila (Siberian Elm) to climate change in the temperate zone of China. Int J Biometeorol 56:695–706
Chuine I (2000) A unified model for budburst of trees. J Theor Biol 207:337–347
Chuine I (2010) Why does phenology drive species distribution? Phil Trans R Soc B 365:3149–3160
Chuine I, Cour P, Rousseau DD (1998) Fitting models predicting dates of flowering of temperate-zone trees using simulated annealing. Plant Cell Environ 21:455–466
Chuine I, Belmonte J, Mignot A (2000a) A modelling analysis of the genetic variation of phenology between tree populations. J Ecol 88:561–570
Chuine I, Cambon G, Comtois P (2000b) Scaling phenology from the local to the regional level: advances from species-specific phenological models. Glob Chang Biol 6:943–952
Chuine I, Yiou P, Viovy N et al (2004) Historical phenology: Grape ripening as a past climate indicator. Nature 432:289–290
Churkina G, Schimel D, Braswell BH et al (2005) Spatial analysis of growing season length control over net ecosystem exchange. Glob Chang Biol 11:1777–1787
Cleland EE, Chuine I, Menzel A et al (2007) Shifting plant phenology in response to global change. Trends Ecol Evol 22:357–365
Collins WD, Bitz CM, Blackmon ML et al (2006) The community climate system model version 3 (CCSM3). J Climate 19:2122–2143
Cong N, Wang T, Nan HJ et al (2013) Changes in satellite-derived spring vegetation green-up date and its linkage to climate in China from 1982 to 2010: a multimethod analysis. Glob Chang Biol 19:881–891
De Melo-Abreu JP, Barranco D, Cordeiro AM et al (2004) Modelling olive flowering date using chilling for dormancy release and thermal time. Agric For Meteorol 125:117–127
Devaux C, Lande R (2010) Selection on variance in flowering time within and among individuals. Evolution 64:1311–1320
Falusi M, Calamassi R (1990) Bud dormancy in beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). Effect of chilling and photoperiod on dormancy release of beech seedlings. Tree Physiol 6:429–438
Falusi M, Calamassi R (1997) Bud dormancy in Fagus sylvatica LI Chilling and photoperiod as factors determining budbreak. Plant Biosyst 131:67–72
Fang JY, Wang ZH, Tang ZR (2009) Atlas of woody plants in China: distribution and climate. Higher Education, Beijing
Fitter AH, Fitter R (2002) Rapid changes in flowering time in British plants. Science 296:1689–1691
Ge Q, Dai J, Zheng J et al (2011) Advances in first bloom dates and increased occurrences of yearly second blooms in eastern China since the 1960s: further phenological evidence of climate warming. Ecol Res 26:713–723
Giménez-Benavides L, Escudero A, Iriondo JM (2006) Reproductive limits of a late-flowering high-mountain Mediterranean plant along an elevational climate gradient. New Phytol 173:367–382
Haggerty BP, Galloway LF (2011) Response of individual components of reproductive phenology to growing season length in a monocarpic herb. J Ecol 99:242–253
Hänninen H (1990) Modelling bud dormancy release in trees from cool and temperate regions. Acta For Fenn 213:1–47
Hänninen H (1991) Does climatic warming increase the risk of frost damage in northern trees? Plant Cell Environ 14:449–454
Ho CH, Lee EJ, Lee I et al (2006) Earlier spring in Seoul, Korea. Int J Climatol 26:2117–2127
Hunter AF, Lechowicz MJ (1992) Predicting the timing of budburst in temperate trees. J Appl Ecol 29:597–604
Ibáñez I, Primack RB, Miller-Rushing AJ et al (2010) Forecasting phenology under global warming. Phil Trans R Soc B 365:3247–3260
Inouye DW (2008) Effects of climate change on phenology, frost damage, and floral abundance of montane wildflowers. Ecology 89:353–362
IPCC (2001) Contribution of working group II to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. In: Mccarthy J, Canziani O, Leary N et al (eds) Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptations, and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, New York
Jump AS, Penuelas J (2005) Running to stand still: adaptation and the response of plants to rapid climate change. Ecol Lett 8:1010–1020
Kramer K (1994) A modelling analysis of the effects of climatic warming on the probability of spring frost damage to tree species in The Netherlands and Germany. Plant Cell Environ 17:367–377
Lebourgeois F, Pierrat J, Perez V et al (2010) Simulating phenological shifts in French temperate forests under two climatic change scenarios and four driving global circulation models. Int J Biometeorol 54:563–581
Leinonen I (1996) A simulation model for the annual frost hardiness and freeze damage of Scots pine. Ann Bot 78:687–693
Loustau D, Bosc A, Colin A et al (2005) Modeling climate change effects on the potential production of French plains forests at the sub-regional level. Tree Physiol 25:813–823
Matsumoto K, Ohta T, Irasawa M et al (2003) Climate change and extension of the Ginkgo biloba L. growing season in Japan. Glob Chang Biol 9:1634–1642
Menzel A, Sparks TH, Estrella N et al (2006) European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern. Glob Chang Biol 12:1969–1976
Morin X, Chuine I (2005) Sensitivity analysis of the tree distribution model PHENOFIT to climatic input characteristics: implications for climate impact assessment. Glob Chang Biol 11:1493–1503
Morin X, Viner D, Chuine I (2008) Tree species range shifts at a continental scale: new predictive insights from a process-based model. J Ecol 96:784–794
Morin X, Lechowicz MI, Augspurger C et al (2009) Leaf phenology in 22 North American tree species during the 21st century. Glob Chang Biol 15:961–975
Murray MB, Cannell M, Smith RI (1989) Date of budburst of fifteen tree species in Britain following climatic warming. J Appl Ecol 26:693–700
Myking T, Heide OM (1995) Dormancy release and chilling requirement of buds of latitudinal ecotypes of Betula pendula and B. pubescens. Tree Physiol 15:697–704
Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421:37–42
Partanen J, Koski V, Hänninen H (1998) Effects of photoperiod and temperature on the timing of bud burst in Norway spruce (Picea abies). Tree Physiol 18:811–816
Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR et al (2003) Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421:57–60
Schwartz MD (2003) Phenology: an integrative environmental science. Kluwer, Dordrecht
Schwartz MD, Marotz GA (1986) An approach to examining regional atmosphere-plant interactions with phenological data. J Biogeogr 13:551–560
Schwartz MD, Marotz GA (1988) Synoptic events and spring phenology. Phys Geogr 9:151–161
Schwartz MD, Ahas R, Aasa A (2006) Onset of spring starting earlier across the Northern Hemisphere. Glob Chang Biol 12:343–351
Sitch S, Smith B, Prentice IC et al (2003) Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model. Glob Chang Biol 9:161–185
Taiz L, Zeiger E (2006) Plant physiology, 4th edn. Sinauer, Sunderland
Thompson R, Clark RM (2006) Spatio-temporal modelling and assessment of within-species phenological variability using thermal time methods. Int J Biometeorol 50:312–322
Walther GR (2003) Plants in a warmer world. Perspect Plant Ecol Evol Syst 6:169–185
Wang H, Dai J, Ge Q (2012) The spatiotemporal characteristics of spring phenophase changes of Fraxinus chinensis in China from 1952 to 2007. Sci China Earth Sci 55:991–1000
Wu XC, Liu HY (2013) Consistent shifts in spring vegetation green-up date across temperate biomes in China, 1982–2006. Glob Chang Biol 19:870–880
Zheng J, Ge Q, Hao Z et al (2006) Spring phenophases in recent decades over eastern China and its possible link to climate changes. Clim Chang 77:449–462
Zwiers F, Hegerl G (2008) Climate change: attributing cause and effect. Nature 453:296–297
Acknowledgments
This research was supported by the Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC, No.: 41030101), National Basic Research Program of China (No. : 2012CB955304), NSFC project (No.: 41171043), and “Strategic Priority Research Program—Climate Change: Carbon Budget and Relevant Issues" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.: XDA05090301). We would very much like to thank Gregory Pierce for his efforts in helping to smooth the English language presentation of this paper. We also acknowledge the two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
ESM 1
(PDF 271 kb)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Ge, Q., Wang, H. & Dai, J. Simulating changes in the leaf unfolding time of 20 plant species in China over the twenty-first century. Int J Biometeorol 58, 473–484 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-013-0671-x
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-013-0671-x