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Evaluation of recent trends in Australian pome fruit spring phenology

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Abstract

Temporal and temperature driven analyses were conducted for eight spring phenology datasets from three Australian pome fruit growing regions ranging from 24 to 43 years in length. This, the first such analysis for Australia, indicated significant temporal change in phenophase timing for only one of the datasets. To determine relationships to temperature, a sequential chill and growth method as well as mean springtime temperatures were used to estimate phenophase timing. Expected advancement of phenophase ranged from 4.1 to 7.7 days per degree Celsius increase in temperature. The sequential chill and growth approach proved superior, with coefficients of determination between 0.49 and 0.85, indicating the inclusion of chill conditions are important for spring phenology modelling. Compared to similar phenological research in the Northern Hemisphere, the changes in response variables were often shallower in Australia, although significance of observed hemispheric differences were not found.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for providing the climate data, Chris Turnbull and Kevin Sanders for granting access to their records and experience, Louise Chvyl and Michael Rettke from SARDI for providing data and advice and, finally Ian Smith from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for providing valuable methodology guidance.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Melbourne School of Land and Environment, University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

    Rebecca Darbyshire, Leanne Webb & E. W. R. Barlow

  2. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Victoria, Australia

    Leanne Webb

  3. Victorian Department of Primary Industries, Tatura, Australia

    Ian Goodwin

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  1. Rebecca Darbyshire
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  2. Leanne Webb
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  3. Ian Goodwin
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  4. E. W. R. Barlow
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Correspondence to Rebecca Darbyshire.

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Darbyshire, R., Webb, L., Goodwin, I. et al. Evaluation of recent trends in Australian pome fruit spring phenology. Int J Biometeorol 57, 409–421 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0567-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0567-1

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