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Correlations between the modelled potato crop yield and the general atmospheric circulation

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Abstract

Biology-related indicators do not usually depend on just one meteorological element but on a combination of several weather indicators. One way to establish such integral indicators is to classify the general atmospheric circulation into a small number of circulation types. The aim of present study is to analyse connections between general atmospheric circulation and potato crop yield in Estonia. Meteorologically possible yield (MPY), calculated by the model POMOD, is used to characterise potato crop yield. Data of three meteorological stations and the biological parameters of two potato sorts were applied to the model, and 73 different classifications of atmospheric circulation from catalogue 1.2 of COST 733, domain 05 are used to qualify circulation conditions. Correlation analysis showed that there is at least one circulation type in each of the classifications with at least one statistically significant (99%) correlation with potato crop yield, whether in Kuressaare, Tallinn or Tartu. However, no classifications with circulation types correlating with MPY in all three stations at the same time were revealed. Circulation types inducing a decrease in the potato crop yield are more clearly represented. Clear differences occurred between the observed geographical locations as well as between the seasons: derived from the number of significant circulation types, summer and Kuressaare stand out. Of potato varieties, late 'Anti' is more influenced by circulation. Analysis of MSLP maps of circulation types revealed that the seaside stations (Tallinn, Kuressaare) suffer from negative effects of anti-cyclonic conditions (drought), while Tartu suffers from the cyclonic activity (excessive water).

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Acknowledgments

This study is financed by the Estonian Science Foundation grant No. 7526, Target Funding Project SF0180127s08 of the Ministry of Education and Science of Estonia and Estonian Ministry of Agriculture through the project "The effect of soil tillage intensity on the yield and quality of slurry-fertilised crops and soil condition" of the State Program "Applied Agricultural Research and Development in 2009-2014". The authors also thank Evelyn Uuemaa and Elise Vanatoa.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, University of Tartu, Vanemuise 46, Tartu, 51014, Estonia

    Mait Sepp & Triin Saue

  2. Estonian Research Institute of Agriculture, Teaduse Str13, Saku, 75501, Estonia

    Triin Saue

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  1. Mait Sepp
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  2. Triin Saue
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Correspondence to Mait Sepp.

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Sepp, M., Saue, T. Correlations between the modelled potato crop yield and the general atmospheric circulation. Int J Biometeorol 56, 591–603 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-011-0448-z

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