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Grapevine bud break prediction for cool winter climates

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Abstract

Statistical analysis of bud break data for grapevine (Vitis vinifera L. cvs. Riesling and Müller-Thurgau) at 13 sites along the northern boundary of commercial grapevine production in Europe revealed that, for all investigated sites, the heat summation method for bud break prediction can be improved if the starting date for the accumulation of heat units is specifically determined. Using the coefficient of variance as a criterion, a global minimum for each site can be identified, marking the optimum starting date. Furthermore, it was shown that the application of a threshold temperature for the heat summation method does not lead to an improved prediction of bud break. Using site-specific parameters, bud break of grapevine can be predicted with an accuracy of ± 2.5 days. Using average parameters, the prediction accuracy is reduced to ± 4.5 days, highlighting the sensitivity of the heat summation method to the quality and the representativeness of the driving temperature data.

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Acknowledgements

The author gratefully acknowledges the contribution of the German Viticulture Research facilities in Bad Kreuznach (E. Müller), Bernkastel-Kues (M. Maixner), Freiburg (H.J. Stuecklin), Oppenheim (J. Wagenitz), Neustadt a.d.W. (B. Ziegler), Trier (E. Kohl), Veitshöchheim (H. Hofmann) and Weinsberg (D. Rupp), of the Institute for Physics and Meteorology at Hohenheim University, Germany (I. Henning-Müller), of the Viticulture Research Institute of Remich, Luxemburg (S. Fischer), of the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute at Bratislava (P. Nejedlik), of the Czech Hydrometerological Institute at Ústí nad Labem (L. Hájková) and of INRA-Agroclim, France (I. Garcia de Cortazar). Furthermore, many thanks are expressed to F.-M. Chmielewski (Humboldt-University of Berlin) and to I. Garcia de Cortazar for valuable comments on the chosen approach.

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  1. Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Institute for Landscape System Analysis, Eberswalder Straße 84, 15374, Müncheberg, Germany

    Claas Nendel

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Nendel, C. Grapevine bud break prediction for cool winter climates. Int J Biometeorol 54, 231–241 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-009-0274-8

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