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Forecasting the start of Quercus pollen season using several methods – the evaluation of their efficiency

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Abstract

Forecasting the time when the atmospheric pollen season of allergenic plants begins is particularly important for doctors and their patients. The aim of this paper is to determine whether it is possible to forecast the start of the oak (Quercus) pollen season in Rzeszów, Poland. In the elaboration of the most effective model, various forecasting techniques were tested: growth degree days (GDD°C); meteorological factors; bioclimatic factors; and indicator taxon. The aerobiological monitoring was carried out in 1997–2005 and 2007 in Rzeszów (SE Poland). In the presented investigation, three methods defining the start of the Quercus pollen season were selected on the basis of accumulated sums of pollen or the constant occurrence of pollen grains in air. Despite the application of different combinations of GDD°C methods and threshold temperatures, the correlation coefficients between the expected and obtained values were low. In some cases, however, they proved highly effective for the test years (2005, 2007) with the accuracy of a few days. For GDD°C methods, the best threshold temperatures range between 5 and 6°C. Models based on bioclimatic indices and meteorological variables were not satisfactory. On the basic of the 10 years of results, the method of indicator species were good for forecast the start of oak pollen season. Birch was the best indicator taxa.

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Acknowledgement

The results presented here address one of the main scientific challenges described in COST Action ES0603 (EUPOL) (http://www.cost.esf.org/index.php?id=1080), specifically Work Package 1 (pollen production and release).

The author would like to thank Matt Smith for assistance in proofreading.

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  1. Department of Environmental Biology, University of Rzeszów, ul. Cegielniana 12, 35-959, Rzeszów, Poland

    Idalia Kasprzyk

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  1. Idalia Kasprzyk
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Correspondence to Idalia Kasprzyk.

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Kasprzyk, I. Forecasting the start of Quercus pollen season using several methods – the evaluation of their efficiency. Int J Biometeorol 53, 345–353 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-009-0221-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-009-0221-8

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