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Heat wave impacts on mortality in Shanghai, 1998 and 2003

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A variety of research has linked extreme heat to heightened levels of daily mortality and, not surprisingly, heat waves both in 1998 and in 2003 all led to elevated mortality in Shanghai, China. While the heat waves in the two years were similar in meteorological character, elevated mortality was much more pronounced during the 1998 event, but it remains unclear why the human response was so varied. In order to explain the differences in human mortality between the two years’ heat waves, and to better understand how heat impacts human health, we examine a wide range of meteorological, pollution, and social variables in Shanghai during the summers (15 June to 15 September) of 1998 and 2003. Thus, the goal of this study is to determine what was responsible for the varying human health response during the two heat events. A multivariate analysis is used to investigate the relationships between mortality and heat wave intensity, duration, and timing within the summer season, along with levels of air pollution. It was found that for heat waves in both summers, mortality was strongly associated with the duration of the heat wave. In addition, while slightly higher than average, the air pollution levels for the two heat waves were similar and cannot fully explain the observed differences in human mortality. Finally, since the meteorological conditions and pollution levels for the two heat waves were alike, we conclude that improvements in living conditions in Shanghai, such as increased use of air conditioning, larger living areas, and increased urban green space, along with higher levels of heat awareness and the implementation of a heat warning system, were responsible for the lower levels of human mortality in 2003 compared to 1998.

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This work was supported by Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster (KLME05005) and the Meteorological New Technique Popularization Project of CMA (CMATG2006M15). We would like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their useful comments that improved the original manuscript. We also thank all members of the accompanying project team for their contribution to the study.

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Correspondence to Jianguo Tan.

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Tan, J., Zheng, Y., Song, G. et al. Heat wave impacts on mortality in Shanghai, 1998 and 2003. Int J Biometeorol 51, 193–200 (2007).

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