Worth of secondary data compared to piezometric data for the probabilistic assessment of radionuclide migration

Abstract:

A common approach for the performance assessment of radionuclide migration from a nuclear waste repository is by means of Monte-Carlo techniques. Multiple realizations of the parameters controlling radionuclide transport are generated and each one of these realizations is used in a numerical model to provide a transport prediction. The statistical analysis of all transport predictions is then used in performance assessment. In order to reduce the uncertainty on the predictions is necessary to incorporate as much information as possible in the generation of the parameter fields. In this regard, this paper focuses in the impact that conditioning the transmissivity fields to geophysical data and/or piezometric head data has on convective transport predictions in a two-dimensional heterogeneous formation. The Walker Lake data based is used to produce a heterogeneous log-transmissivity field with distinct non-Gaussian characteristics and a secondary variable that represents some geophysical attribute. In addition, the piezometric head field resulting from the steady-state solution of the groundwater flow equation is computed. These three reference fields are sampled to mimic a sampling campaign. Then, a series of Monte-Carlo exercises using different combinations of sampled data shows the relative worth of secondary data with respect to piezometric head data for transport predictions. The analysis shows that secondary data allows to reproduce the main spatial patterns of the reference transmissivity field and improves the mass transport predictions with respect to the case in which only transmissivity data is used. However, a few piezometric head measurements could be equally effective for the characterization of transport predictions.