Modes of low-frequency climate variability and their relationships with land precipitation and surface temperature: application to the Northern Hemisphere winter climate

Abstract.

 Variations in the Earth's climate have had considerable impact on society sectors such as energy, agriculture, fisheries, water resources, and environmental quality. This natural climate variability must be documented and understood in order to assess its potential impacts, its predictability and relationships with human-induced changes. Understanding the mechanisms responsible for natural variability proceeds through a strategy based on the use of a hierarchy of climate models and careful data analysis. In this paper, we examine primarily climate fluctuations on interannual-to-decadal time scales and their climate signature in terms of precipitation and temperature. First, space and time characteristics of two of the major variability modes, the Southern Oscillation (and its associated teleconnection patterns) and the North Atlantic Oscillation, are documented with a focus onto the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Then, the current hypothesis regarding the nature of these modes (forced, coupled or internal) are reviewed based on both simulation results and statistical data analyses. Next, we address the potential predictability of seasonal surface temperature and land precipitation using an ensemble of atmospheric model simulations forced by observed sea surface temperatures. Finally, we review the relationships between the atmospheric variability modes and the recent low-frequency trends and suggest a possible influence of anthropogenic effects on these low-frequency variations.