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Historical changes of extreme temperature in relation to soil moisture over different climatic zones of Iran

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Abstract

The analysis of hydroclimate extremes is gaining more attention due to the devastating effects of intense floods, droughts, etc. This study aims to analyze the stationary (S) and non-stationary (NS) behavior of the annual maximum temperatures (AMT) for two different climatic zones of Iran including the arid and excessively humid provinces of Kerman and West Azerbaijan, respectively. The research datasets included maximum temperature (from CRU TS) and soil moisture (from ERA5) on a monthly time scale (spanning 1901–2019 and 1979–2019). Trend, homogeneity, and stationarity tests were applied to define the basic characterization of the AMTs. The frequency analyses of the AMTs were carried out using generalized extreme value (GEV) under two assumptions of S-GEV and NS-GEV. Moreover, the fitted distribution parameters were estimated using a maximum likelihood estimator. In addition to time-varying NS-GEV investigations, the soil moisture during summer (SM-June, July, and August) was also employed as the covariate to quantify the relationship between drought and AMTs in these climatic zones. The research findings revealed that the Akaike information criterion in S-GEV and NS-GEV estimations decreased from 309 to 223 and 329 to 254 for arid and excessively humid climatic zones, respectively. Therefore, the NS-GEV frequency analyses has increasing effects on return levels of the AMTs than the S-GEV. In the following, the spatial NS-GEV investigations in all 12 and 15 stations of both provinces, showed that NS-GEV with SM as a covariate has better performance in excessively humid climatic zones.

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Data availability

The station-based meteorological data have been prepared from the Ministry of Energy and Meteorological Organization of Iran and after validation have been used. The CRU Tmax dataset and ERA5 soil moisture data were extrracted from https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data and https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5, repectively.

Notes

  1. ECMWF Reanalysis v5.

  2. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

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Acknowledgements

This research work was supported by the Graduate University of Advanced Technology (Institute of Science and High Technology and Environmental Science) (No. 1401/3022), which the authors gratefully acknowledge. The authors also appreciate the time and feedback of the editor and the anonymous reviewers, who provided valuable suggestions and comments that helped improve the manuscript.

Funding

This research work was supported by the Graduate University of Advanced Technology (Institute of Science and High Technology and Environmental Science) (No. 1400/2659). The authors gratefully acknowledge this help.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Ecology, Institute of Sciences and High Technology and Environmental Sciences, Graduate University of Advanced Technology, Kerman, Iran

    Sedigheh Anvari

  2. Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Environment, Arak University, Arak, Iran

    Mahnoosh Moghaddasi

  3. Department of Water Resources, Water Institute, Arak University, Arak, Iran

    Mahnoosh Moghaddasi

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SA and MM performed material preparation, data collection and analysis. SA wrote the first draft of the manuscript and responded to reviewers. All authors, SA and MM, read and approved the final manuscript.

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Anvari, S., Moghaddasi, M. Historical changes of extreme temperature in relation to soil moisture over different climatic zones of Iran. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 38, 157–173 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-023-02558-2

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