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The increasing risk of future simultaneous droughts over the Yangtze River basin based on CMIP6 models

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Abstract

Drought projection is critical for water resource planning and management, as well as disaster prevention and mitigation. As a strategic national water source for China, the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) plays a vital role in the connectivity of rivers and economic development, flowing through 11 provincial administrative regions and is injected into the East China Sea, with a total length of 6,397 km. The watershed covers an area of 1.8 million square kilometers, accounting for about 1/5 of China's total land area. However, frequent droughts have caused water shortages in the YRB in recent years. Based on observed meteorological and hydrological data, the CMIP6 model and SPEI (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) drought models were used to elucidate the risk of future simultaneous droughts in the upper and mid-lower reaches of the YRB from 2015 to 2100. SRI has been used based on SWAT model to study the transfer process of meteorological drought to hydrological drought. The results indicated that, (1) The average of 10 CMIP6 models showed a good verification of historical precipitation and temperature for drought predictions. The MMK and Sen’s slope demonstrated consistency for historical and future droughts in the YRB. From a historical perspective (1961–2019), the middle reaches of the YRB experienced intensifying drought frequency with the highest total drought (Moderate and above drought events) frequency (> 17%); (2) In the future (2020–2100), the higher emission signifies higher moderate and total drought frequency, intensity, and scope of the YRB in FF, lower in NF. The ratio of autumn severe and extreme droughts would increase in mid-twenty-first century; (3) Severe drought risk encounters were projected in the upper and meanwhile in the middle-lower reaches in YRB, especially in the 2030–2040 period. Under all three scenarios, severe droughts occurred more frequently with SPEI close to − 2. The middle-lower reaches of the YRB are forecast to witness the largest scope and highest intensity of drought under the SSP1-2.6 scenario.; (4) The future runoff in the YRB during the dry period varied less, but in May and June during the main flood season the runoff under SSP1-2.6 would be the largest. Maximum decrease in runoff in the mid-lower reaches under the SSP2-4.5 scenario would be 2045, reaching 13.9%. Extreme flooding events and extreme meteorological droughts would happen accompanying with hydrological droughts would occur more frequently and severely under different scenarios. More attention and improved strategies should be brought to bear to address future simultaneous droughts in the upper and mid-lower YRB.

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Funding

This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant Number 41971025]; Research Funding of China Three Gorges Corporation [Grant Number 202003251]; and Open Research Foundation of Hubei Key Laboratory of Intelligent YRB and Hydropower Science [Grant Number ZH2002000113].

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulics Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China

    Ying Zhang, Xin Hu, Zengxin Zhang, Rui Kong, Zhenhua Peng & Xi Chen

  2. Joint Innovation Center for Modern Forestry Studies, College of Biology and the Environment, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, Jiangsu, China

    Zengxin Zhang

  3. Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, Jiangsu, China

    Qi Zhang

  4. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, 210098, Jiangsu, China

    Qi Zhang

Authors
  1. Ying Zhang
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  2. Xin Hu
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  3. Zengxin Zhang
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  4. Rui Kong
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  5. Zhenhua Peng
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  6. Qi Zhang
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  7. Xi Chen
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Contributions

YZ: Writing—Original draft preparation, Software, Data Curation; ZZ: Conceptualization, Writing—Review & Editing; RK and ZP: Writing—Review & Editing; QZ and XC: Resources, Data curation. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Zengxin Zhang.

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Zhang, Y., Hu, X., Zhang, Z. et al. The increasing risk of future simultaneous droughts over the Yangtze River basin based on CMIP6 models. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 37, 2577–2601 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-023-02406-3

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