Abstract
Drought disasters are natural disasters with complex mechanisms and multiple characteristics. The quantitative evaluation of crop drought risk is central to managing drought risk and reducing loss. Therefore, assessing drought loss risk from the perspective of the drought formation process has scientific and prbactical value. In this study, we constructed crop drought loss risk curves to describe the development of drought risk loss. The intensity of drought events was expressed by the occurrence frequency, which was calculated based on long-term precipitation (1955–2012) and the copula function. The possible loss risk caused by drought was expressed as yield loss, which was simulated using the DSSAT-SROPGRO-soybean model. The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of agricultural drought loss risk in the Huaibei Plain of Anhui Province, China, were represented by risk distribution maps. The main results showed that: 1) Drought events occurred more frequently in northern regions (Huaibei and Suzhou), but the intensity was lower. 2) Without irrigation, Fuyang was the region with the highest potential drought loss risk (more than 80% yield loss rate). 3) Irrigation had a significant effect on reducing drought risk loss, while efficiency was influenced by the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation. This study has established and implemented a quantitative framework for regional drought risk assessment by creating drought risk curves and risk maps, which have significant value for improving the regional agricultural drought risk management level.
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grand No. 52109009, the Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province under Grant No. 2108085QE254, the National Key Research and Development Program of China under Grant No. 2017YFC1502405, the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under Grant Nos. JZ2021HGTA0165, JZ2020HGQA0202, JZ2021HGQB0281, and the China Scholarship Council.
Funding
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grand No. 52109009, the Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province under Grant No. 2108085QE254, the National Key Research and Development Program of China under Grant No. 2017YFC1502405, the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under Grant Nos. JZ2021HGTA0165, JZ2020HGQA0202, JZ2021HGQB0281.
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Conceptualization: JJ; Methodology: YC, YW; Formal analysis and investigation: YW; Writing-original draft preparation: YW; Writing-review and editing: HI, HL; Data support: SJ; References support: RZ, LZ.
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Wei, Y., Jin, J., Cui, Y. et al. Agricultural drought risk assessment based on crop simulation, risk curves, and risk maps in Huaibei Plain of Anhui Province, China. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 36, 3335–3353 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-022-02197-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-022-02197-z