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Nonhomogeneous poisson process model of summer high temperature extremes over China

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Abstract

In this study, nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) models arising from the extreme value theory have been fitted to summer high temperature extremes (HTEs) at 321 meteorological stations over China. The seasonality and six prominent atmospheric teleconnection patterns in Northern Hemisphere are incorporated in the NHPP models reflecting the non-stationarity of occurrence rate in Poisson process of HTEs. In addition, Poisson regression model has also been applied to link HTEs and these teleconnection patterns. The linkages of HTEs and teleconnection patterns have been identified in both NHPP modeling and Poisson regression. Composite maps of differences of 500-hPa geopotential height and wind fields in the positive and negative phases of teleconnection patterns are constructed to show the impacts of atmospheric circulation patterns on extreme heat events. The spatial pattern of the associated anticyclonic or cyclonic circulations with teleconnection patterns partly explains the spatial variability of the occurrences of summer HTEs over China.

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Data availability

The data that support the findings of this study are openly available. The daily maximum temperatures are accessed from the National Meteorological Information Center (NMIC) of China Meteorological Administration (CMA). Registered users can download the datasets at https://data.cma.cn/. The Northern Hemisphere teleconnection pattern indices are provided by NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction and available at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/telecontents.shtml. The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis I dataset is obtained from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html.

Code availability

The computer code for statistical modeling can be requested from the corresponding author via personal communication.

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Acknowledgements

This study was funded by the Key Program of Shandong Natural Science Foundation (No. ZR2020KF031) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 31570423).

Funding

This study was funded by the Key Program of Shandong Natural Science Foundation (No. ZR2020KF031) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 31570423).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Mathematics and Information Sciences, Yantai University, Yantai, 264005, China

    Meng Gao, Han Zhang & Aidi Zhang

  2. Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai, 264003, China

    Yueqi Wang

  3. Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, 266071, China

    Yueqi Wang

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  1. Meng Gao
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  2. Han Zhang
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  3. Aidi Zhang
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  4. Yueqi Wang
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Contributions

Conceptualization, MG; Data curation, MG; Funding acquisition, MG; Investigation, MG, and YW; Methodology, MG, and YW; Project administration, MG; Resources, MG, Software, MG, HZ, AZ; Supervision, MG and YW; Visualization, MG, YW; Writing—review and editing, MG, HZ, AZ, and YW.

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Correspondence to Meng Gao.

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Gao, M., Zhang, H., Zhang, A. et al. Nonhomogeneous poisson process model of summer high temperature extremes over China. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 36, 2649–2660 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-021-02149-z

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