Abstract
Adequate understanding of the temporal connections in rainfall is important for reliable predictions of rainfall and, hence, for water resources planning and management. This research aims to study the temporal connections in rainfall using complex networks concepts. First, the single-variable rainfall time series is represented in a multi-dimensional phase space using delay embedding (i.e. phase-space reconstruction), where the appropriate delay time and optimal embedding dimension of the time series are determined by using average mutual information and false nearest neighbors methods, respectively. Then, this reconstructed phase space is treated as a ‘network,’ with the reconstructed vectors serving as ‘nodes’ and the connections between them serving as ‘links’. Finally, the strength of the nodes are calculated to identify some key properties of the temporal rainfall network. The approach is employed independently to monthly rainfall data observed over a period of 38 years (1979–2016) from 14 rain gauge stations in the Vu Gia Thu Bon River basin in central Vietnam. Moreover, entropy values of the original rainfall time series are calculated for obtaining additional information on the properties of the rainfall dynamics. The average node strengths are also examined in terms of the mean annual rainfall, entropy of the time series, and elevation of the rain gauge station. The results indicate that: (1) while some adjacent stations (i.e. networks) have somewhat similar strength (average node strength) values, several others that are geographically close show significantly different network strengths; (2) similar entropies for adjacent stations are found more frequently than similar average node strengths; (3) there is generally a positive and proportional relationship between average strengths of nodes and entropies; and (4) the average node strengths of different months have some distinct temporal patterns (3-month, 4-month, and 6-month patterns) in rainfall dynamics, depending upon the specific region of the study area. These results have important implications for prediction, interpolation, and extrapolation of rainfall data.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abarbanel HDI (1996) Analysis of observed chaotic data. Springer, New York
Ali M, Deo RC, Downs NJ, Maraseni T (2018) Multi-stage hybridized online sequential extreme learning machine integrated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo copula-Bat algorithm for rainfall forecasting. Atmos Res 213:450–464
Ali M, Prasad R, Xiang Y, Yaseen ZM (2020) Complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition hybridized with random forest and kernel ridge regression model for monthly rainfall forecasts. J Hydrol 584:124647
Barabási A-L, Albert R (1999) Emergence of scaling in random networks. Science 80(286):509–512
Chau KW, Wu CL (2010) A hybrid model coupled with singular spectrum analysis for daily rainfall prediction. J Hydroinform 12:458–473
Danandeh Mehr A, Nourani V, Karimi Khosrowshahi V, Ghorbani MA (2019) A hybrid support vector regression–firefly model for monthly rainfall forecasting. Int J Environ Sci Technol 16:335–346. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-018-1674-2
De Michele C, Bernardara P (2005) Spectral analysis and modeling of space-time rainfall fields. Atmos Res 77:124–136
Diop L, Samadianfard S, Bodian A et al (2020) Annual rainfall forecasting using hybrid artificial intelligence model: integration of multilayer perceptron with whale optimization algorithm. Water Resour Manag 34:733–746
Folland C, Owen J, Ward MN, Colman A (1991) Prediction of seasonal rainfall in the Sahel region using empirical and dynamical methods. J Forecast 10:21–56
Fraser AM, Swinney HL (1986) Independent coordinates for strange attractors from mutual information. Phys Rev A 33:1134–1140. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevA.33.1134
French MN, Krajewski WF, Cuykendall RR (1992) Rainfall forecasting in space and time using a neural network. J Hydrol 137:1–31
Jarvis A, Reuter HI, Nelson A, Guevara E (2006) Void-filled seamless SRTM data V3, available from the CGIAR-CSI SRTM 90 m Database
Jha SK, Sivakumar B (2017) Complex networks for rainfall modeling: spatial connections, temporal scale, and network size. J Hydrol 554:482–489
Jha SK, Zhao H, Woldemeskel FM, Sivakumar B (2015) Network theory and spatial rainfall connections: an interpretation. J Hydrol 527:13–19
Johnson ER, Bras RL (1980) Multivariate short-term rainfall prediction. Water Resour Res 16:173–185
Kawachi T, Maruyama T, Singh VP (2001) Rainfall entropy for delineation of water resources zones in Japan. J Hydrol 246:36–44
Kennel MB, Brown R, Abarbanel HDI (1992) Determining embedding dimension for phase-space reconstruction using a geometrical construction. Phys Rev A 45:3403–3411. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevA.45.3403
Mishra AK, Özger M, Singh VP (2009) An entropy-based investigation into the variability of precipitation. J Hydrol 370:139–154
Naufan I, Sivakumar B, Woldemeskel FM et al (2018) Spatial connections in regional climate model rainfall outputs at different temporal scales: application of network theory. J Hydrol 556:1232–1243
Ouallouche F, Lazri M, Ameur S (2018) Improvement of rainfall estimation from MSG data using random forests classification and regression. Atmos Res 211:62–72
Packard NH, Crutchfield JP, Farmer JD, Shaw RS (1980) Geometry from a time series. Phys Rev Lett 45:712–716
Remya R, Unnikrishnan K (2010) Chaotic behaviour of interplanetary magnetic field under various geomagnetic conditions. J Atmos Solar Terrestrial Phys 72:662–675
Ribbe L, Trinh VQ, Firoz ABM, Nguyen AT, Nguyen U, Nauditt A (2017) Integrated river basin management in the Vu Gia Thu Bon basin. In: Land use and climate change interactions in Central Vietnam. Springer, pp 153–170
Scarsoglio S, Laio F, Ridolfi L (2013) Climate dynamics: a network-based approach for the analysis of global precipitation. PLoS ONE 8:e71129
Sivakumar B (2017) Chaos in hydrology: bridging determinism and stochasticity. Springer, Dordrecht
Sivakumar B, Woldemeskel FM (2015) A network-based analysis of spatial rainfall connections. Environ Model Softw 69:55–62
Sivakumar B, Sorooshian S, Gupta HV, Gao X (2001) A chaotic approach to rainfall disaggregation. Water Resour Res 37:61–72
Souvignet M, Laux P, Freer J et al (2014) Recent climatic trends and linkages to river discharge in Central Vietnam. Hydrol Process 28:1587–1601
Sun AY, Xia Y, Caldwell TG, Hao Z (2018) Patterns of precipitation and soil moisture extremes in Texas, US: a complex network analysis. Adv Water Resour 112:203–213
Takens F (1981) Detecting strange attractors in turbulence. In: Rand D, Young LS (eds) Dynamical systems and turbulence, Warwick 1980: proceedings of a symposium held at the University of Warwick 1979/80, Springer, Berlin, pp 366–381
Tiwari S, Jha SK, Sivakumar B (2019) Reconstruction of daily rainfall data using the concepts of networks: accounting for spatial connections in neighborhood selection. J Hydrol 579:124185
Toth E, Brath A, Montanari A (2000) Comparison of short-term rainfall prediction models for real-time flood forecasting. J Hydrol 239:132–147
Vu MT, Vo ND, Gourbesville P et al (2017) Hydro-meteorological drought assessment under climate change impact over the Vu Gia-Thu Bon river basin. Vietnam. Hydrol Sci J 62:1654–1668
Watts DJ, Strogatz SH (1998) Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks. Nature 393:440–442
Wong KW, Wong PM, Gedeon TD, Fung CC (2003) Rainfall prediction model using soft computing technique. Soft Comput 7:434–438
Wu J, Long J, Liu M (2015) Evolving RBF neural networks for rainfall prediction using hybrid particle swarm optimization and genetic algorithm. Neurocomputing 148:136–142
Yasmin N, Sivakumar B (2018) Temporal streamflow analysis: coupling nonlinear dynamics with complex networks. J Hydrol 564:59–67
Funding
This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Ghorbani, M.A., Karimi, V., Ruskeepää, H. et al. Application of complex networks for monthly rainfall dynamics over central Vietnam. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 35, 535–548 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-020-01962-2
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-020-01962-2