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Meteorological drought risk in the Daqing River Basin, North China: current observations and future projections

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Abstract

Drought is a major natural hazard that can have devastating impacts on regional agriculture, water supply, ecological environment and social economy. Extreme events, including droughts, are expected to be severer and more frequent because of climate warming. This paper presents an analysis of observed changes and future projections of meteorological drought in the Daqing River Basin (DRB), North China, based on the modified Standardized Precipitation Index (SPImod). Observed changes of meteorological drought are analyzed based on the precipitation series of 26 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2011, and future projections are made under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) from 2021 to 2050. The result shows a change from wet to dry detected in most areas of the DRB in summer, winter and annual series. The drought risk is higher under the condition of “OR” and “AND” return period during the observation period, and the high-risk regions cover a large area. The drought risk from 2021 to 2050 will increase across the basin under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, compared with which in the base period from 1971 to 2000. Most regions will be at a higher drought risk under the condition of “OR” return period, and the area with high-risk under RCP 4.5 is slightly larger than that under RCP 8.5. Under the condition of “AND” return period, the high-risk regions will cover the area from the northwest to the northeast, while the area of high-risk regions under RCP 8.5 will be larger than that under RCP 4.5. The result of this paper will be helpful for performing an efficient water resource management in the DRB under the impacts of global warming and climate change.

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Acknowledgments

This research received financial support from the National Key Research and Development Plan (Grant No. 2016YFC0401407), China, and also supported by Key Scientific and Technological Project of Henan Province (Grant No. 192102310257), and the Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research) (Grant No. IWHR-SKL-201715). The authors have declared no conflicting interests. We thank all reviewers and the Editorial Board of the Issue for their constructive comments on initial draft of the paper.

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  1. North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450045, China

    Wenbin Mu, Yuping Han & Weixi Ma

  2. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, China

    Wenbin Mu, Fuliang Yu & Yong Zhao

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Correspondence to Yong Zhao.

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Mu, W., Yu, F., Han, Y. et al. Meteorological drought risk in the Daqing River Basin, North China: current observations and future projections. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 34, 1795–1811 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-020-01845-6

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