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The evolvement mechanism of hydro-meteorological elements under climate change and the interaction impacts in Xin’anjiang Basin, China

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Abstract

In order to explore the evolvement mechanism of hydrological elements under climate change and the interaction impacts, the hydro-meteorological elements, like temperature, precipitation, runoff, and evaporation, are studied by statistical analysis method and cause analysis approach in this paper. Initially, in terms of climate change across Anhui province, the average temperature data from 1960 to 2009 at 15 meteorological stations are selected from China Meteorological Data Sharing Network to analyze the spatio-temporal variation of temperature characteristics. Secondly, from the perspective of Xin’anjiang Basin, evolution rules of hydro-meteorological elements are studied through deviation variation of every 10 years and the long-term development trend from 1981 to 2010 at 9 hydrological stations. And the influence of climate change on runoff is analyzed according to the principle of runoff formation, and the response of runoff to precipitation and temperature is predicted with the simulating future climate change by climate models. The results show that, through statistics, the average temperature in Anhui province is in a fluctuating downward state from 1960 to 1990. After 1990, the uptrend is significant. In Xin’anjiang Basin, the annual precipitation declines overally, especially at some stations it is obvious. The variation of runoff is in a downtrend consistent with precipitation, but it is not noticeable, taken as a whole. The average evaporation changes unremarkably, except in summer and winter. Under three scenarios of A1B, A2 and B1, it is assumed that temperature, precipitation and runoff are all increasing in the future. Through cause analysis, these mainly seem to be affected by the circulation of weather background and sea surface temperature. Based on the analysis of hydro-meteorological elements under climate change and the forecasting of their future changes, the development of regional water resources can be grasped which is of great significance for human interests to water supply scheme, water conservancy project planning, and the economic-social sustainablility.

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Acknowledgements

The authors appreciate the support of the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2017YFC1502405), China Scholarship Council (Nos. 201808320128, 201808320127), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41671022, 51609094, 51509158, 51579059), the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province for Youth (Grant No. BK20150075), Project funded by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant No. 2019M651892), Open Research Foundation for Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (Grant No. JKLAM1701), and Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Research Foundation (Grant No. 2017r097). The authors also want to thank the people for their helpful suggestions and corrections on the earlier draft of our study according to which we improved the content.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, Jiangsu Province, China

    Jun Zhao & Jinchao Xu

  2. Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, 210029, Jiangsu Province, China

    Jun Zhao & Liang Cheng

  3. School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, Jiangsu Province, China

    Jun Zhao, Jinchao Xu, Xuechun Li & Nuo Chen

  4. School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, 230009, Anhui Province, China

    Juliang Jin

  5. Shanghai Cathay Advertising Co., LTD, Shanghai, 200030, Shanghai, China

    Donghao Han

  6. Jiaxing Airport, Jiaxing, 314000, Zhejiang Province, China

    Yi Zhong

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  1. Jun Zhao
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  2. Jinchao Xu
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  3. Liang Cheng
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  4. Juliang Jin
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  5. Xuechun Li
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  6. Nuo Chen
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  7. Donghao Han
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  8. Yi Zhong
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Correspondence to Jun Zhao.

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Zhao, J., Xu, J., Cheng, L. et al. The evolvement mechanism of hydro-meteorological elements under climate change and the interaction impacts in Xin’anjiang Basin, China. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 33, 1159–1173 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-019-01693-z

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