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Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment

, Volume 32, Issue 9, pp 2647–2666 | Cite as

Probabilistic analysis of risk and mitigation of deepwater well blowouts and oil spills

  • Alessandro Caia
  • Alberto Giulio Di Lullo
  • Giambattista De Ghetto
  • Alberto Guadagnini
Original Paper

Abstract

The development of robust risk assessment procedures for offshore oil and gas operations is a major element for the assessment of the potential feedback between planned activities and the environment. We illustrate a methodological and computational framework conducive to (1) a quantitative risk analysis of deepwater well barrier failures and subsequent hydrocarbon release to the environment and (2) the analysis of the value of the deployment of conventional and/or innovative mitigation measures. Our methodological framework is grounded on historical records and combines the use of Dynamic Event Trees and Decision Trees from which we estimate probability of occurrence and impact of post-blowout events. Each sequence of response actions, which are undertaken immediately after the event or in the subsequent days, is considered within the context of appropriately structured event paths. This approach is conducive to an estimate of the expected value of key decisions and underlying technologies, with an emphasis on their potential to reduce the oil spill volume, which can critically impact the environment. Our study yields an original comparative analysis of diverse intervention strategies, and forms a basis to guiding future efforts towards the development and deployment of technologies and operating procedures yielding maximum benefit in terms of safety of operations and environmental protection.

Keywords

Probabilistic Risk Analysis Oil well blowout Deepwater drilling Event Tree Analysis Decision Tree Analysis 

Abbreviations

A

Annulus

BO

Blow out

BOEMRE

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement

BOP

Blow Out Preventer

BOPD

Barrel of Oil Per Day

BP

British Petroleum

BS

Blowstop

BS-PI

Blowstop (Primary Intervention)

BS-SI

Blowstop (Secondary Intervention)

CS

Capping Stack

CUBE

Containment of Underwater Blowout Events

DNV

Det Norske Veritas

DPS

Dynamic Positioning System

DR

Debris Removal

DS

Drill String

DSL

Damage to surface mud lines

DT

Decision Tree

DTA

Decision Tree Analysis

EMV

Expected Monetary Value

ERA

Environmental Risk Assessment

ESP

Electrical Submersible Pump

ET

Event Tree

ETA

Event Tree Analysis

FLOAT

Rig floating

FMEA

Failure Modes and Effects Analysis

FTA

Fault Tree Analysis

HAWK

Hampering Active Wellbore Kit

IPR

Inflow Performance Relationship

LEP

Loss of electric power

LMRP

Lower Marine Riser Package

LMRP TH#4

LMRP Top Hat #4

NPV

Net Present Value

OA

Outer Annulus

OC

Outside Casing

OGP

International Association of Oil and Gas Producers

OLF

Oljeindustriens Landsforening

OSCAR

Oil Spill Contingency And Response

OSS

Oil Spill Scenario

OSV

Oil Spill Volume

PDF

Probability Density Function

PI

Productivity Index

PRA

Probabilistic Risk Analysis

PSA

Probabilistic Safety Analysis

QRA

Quantitative Risk Analysis

R&D

Research & Development

RC

Rapid CUBE

RIS

Marine riser sinking

RITT

Riser Insertion Tube Tool

ROV

Remotely Operated Vehicle

RW

Relief Well

SEP

Start of evacuation of rig personnel

SINK

Rig sunk

SINTEF

Stiftelsen for INdustriell og TEknisk Forskning

ST

Stock Tank conditions

TH

Top Hat

TOW

Rig towed

VEC

Valued Ecosystem Component

VoO

Vessel of Opportunity

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e AmbientalePolitecnico di MilanoMilanItaly
  2. 2.Eni SpAMilanItaly
  3. 3.Dipartimento di EnergiaPolitecnico di MilanoMilanItaly
  4. 4.Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of ArizonaTucsonUSA
  5. 5.Kwantis SrlMilanItaly

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