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Predicting spatio-temporal concentrations of PM2.5 using land use and meteorological data in Yangtze River Delta, China

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Abstract

The prediction of PM2.5 concentrations with high spatiotemporal resolution has been suggested as a potential method for data collection to assess the health effects of exposure. This work predicted the weekly average PM2.5 concentrations in the Yangtze River Delta, China, by using a spatio-temporal model. Integrating land use data, including the areas of cultivated land, construction land, and forest land, and meteorological data, including precipitation, air pressure, relative humidity, temperature, and wind speed, we used the model to estimate the weekly average PM2.5 concentrations. We validated the estimated effects by using the cross-validated R2 and Root mean square error (RMSE); the results showed that the model performed well in capturing the spatiotemporal variability of PM2.5 concentration, with a reasonably large R2 of 0.86 and a small RMSE of 8.15 (μg/m3). In addition, the predicted values covered 94% of the observed data at the 95% confidence interval. This work provided a dataset of PM2.5 concentration predictions with a spatiotemporal resolution of 3 km × week, which would contribute to accurately assessing the potential health effects of air pollution.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the Resource and Environmental Science Data Center (http://www.resdc.cn) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System (http://cdc.cma.gov.cn/) for providing data. The authors appreciate the insightful comments of anonymous reviewers.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China

    Dongyang Yang, Debin Lu, Jianhua Xu, Chao Ye, Jianan Zhao & Nina Zhu

  2. Department of Tourism and Geography, Tongren University, Tongren, 554300, Guizhou Province, China

    Debin Lu

  3. College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng, 475004, China

    Guanghui Tian

  4. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Xinge Wang

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  1. Dongyang Yang
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  7. Xinge Wang
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Correspondence to Jianhua Xu.

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Yang, D., Lu, D., Xu, J. et al. Predicting spatio-temporal concentrations of PM2.5 using land use and meteorological data in Yangtze River Delta, China. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 32, 2445–2456 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-017-1497-6

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