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Quantifying differences between reservoir inflows and dam site floods using frequency and risk analysis methods

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Abstract

Reservoirs are the most important constructions for water resources management and flood control. Great concern has been paid to the effects of reservoir on downstream area and the differences between inflows and dam site floods due to the changes of upstream flow generation and concentration conditions after reservoir’s impoundment. These differences result in inconsistency between inflow quantiles and the reservoir design criteria derived by dam site flood series, which can be a potential risk and must be quantificationally evaluated. In this study, flood frequency analysis (FFA) and flood control risk analysis (FCRA) methods are used with the long reservoir inflow series derived from a multiple inputs and single output model and a copula-based inflow estimation model. The results of FFA and FCRA are compared and the influences on reservoir flood management are also discussed. The Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China is selected as a case study. Results show that the differences between the TGR inflow and dam site floods are significant which result in changes on its flood control risk rates. The mean values of TGR’s annual maximum inflow peak discharge and 3 days flood volume have increased 5.58 and 3.85% than the dam site ones, while declined by 1.82 and 1.72% for the annual maximum 7 and 15 days flood volumes. The flood control risk rates of middle and small flood events are increased while extreme flood events are declined. It is shown that the TGR can satisfy the flood control task under current hydrologic regime and the results can offer references for better management of the TGR.

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Acknowledgements

This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51539009 and 51579183) and the National Key Research and Development Plan of China (2016YFC0402206).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Hubei Provincial Collaborative Innovative Center for Water Resources Security, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China

    Yixuan Zhong, Shenglian Guo, Zhangjun Liu & Jiabo Yin

  2. China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd, Yichang, 443000, China

    Yun Wang

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  1. Yixuan Zhong
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  2. Shenglian Guo
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Correspondence to Shenglian Guo.

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Zhong, Y., Guo, S., Liu, Z. et al. Quantifying differences between reservoir inflows and dam site floods using frequency and risk analysis methods. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 32, 419–433 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-017-1401-4

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