Abstract
Weather radar been widely employed to measure precipitation and to predict flood risks. However, it is still not considered accurate enough because of radar errors. Most previous studies have focused primarily on removing errors from the radar data. Therefore, in the current study, we examined the effects of radar rainfall errors on rainfall-runoff simulation using the spatial error model (SEM). SEM was used to synthetically generate random or cross-correlated errors. A number of events were generated to investigate the effect of spatially dependent errors in radar rainfall estimates on runoff simulation. For runoff simulation, the Nam River basin in South Korea was used with the distributed rainfall-runoff model, Vflo™. The results indicated that spatially dependent errors caused much higher variations in peak discharge than independent random errors. To further investigate the effect of the magnitude of cross-correlation among radar errors, different magnitudes of spatial cross-correlations were employed during the rainfall-runoff simulation. The results demonstrated that a stronger correlation led to a higher variation in peak discharge up to the observed correlation structure while a correlation stronger than the observed case resulted in lower variability in peak discharge. We concluded that the error structure in radar rainfall estimates significantly affects predictions of the runoff peak. Therefore, efforts to not only remove the radar rainfall errors, but to also weaken the cross-correlation structure of the errors need to be taken to forecast flood events accurately.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
AghaKouchak A, Habib E, Bárdossy A (2010) Modeling radar rainfall estimation uncertainties: random error model. J Hydrol Eng 15:265–274. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000185
Bedient PB, Hoblit BC, Gladwell DC, Vieux BE (2000) NEXRAD radar for flood prediction in Houston. J Hydrol Eng 5:269–277. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2000)5:3(269)
Borga M (2002) Accuracy of radar rainfall estimates for streamflow simulation. J Hydrol 267:26–39. doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00137-3
Bringi VN, Rico-Ramirez MA, Thurai M (2011) Rainfall estimation with an operational polarimetric C-band radar in the United Kingdom: comparison with a gauge network and error analysis. J Hydrometeorol 12:935–954. doi:10.1175/JHM-D-10-05013.1
Bruno F, Cocchi D, Greco F, Scardovi E (2014) Spatial reconstruction of rainfall fields from rain gauge and radar data. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 28:1235–1245. doi:10.1007/s00477-013-0812-0
Butts MB, Payne JT, Kristensen M, Madsen H (2004) An evaluation of the impact of model structure on hydrological modelling uncertainty for streamflow simulation. J Hydrol 298:242–266. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.03.042
Carpenter TM, Georgakakos KP (2004) Impacts of parametric and radar rainfall uncertainty on the ensemble streamflow simulations of a distributed hydrologic model. J Hydrol 298:202–221. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.03.036
Chilès J-P, Delfiner P (1999) Geostatistics: modeling spatial uncertainty, 2nd edn. Wiley, New York
Ciach GJ, Krajewski WF (1999) On the estimation of radar rainfall error variance. Adv Water Resour 22:585–595. doi:10.1016/S0309-1708(98)00043-8
Ciach GJ, Krajewski WF (2006) Analysis and modeling of spatial correlation structure in small-scale rainfall in Central Oklahoma. Adv Water Resour 29:1450–1463. doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2005.11.003
Ciach GJ, Krajewski WF, Villarini G (2007) Product-error-driven uncertainty model for probabilistic quantitative precipitation estimation with NEXRAD data. J Hydrometeorol 8:1325–1347. doi:10.1175/2007JHM814.1
Cunha LK, Mandapaka PV, Krajewski WF, Mantilla R, Bradley AA (2012) Impact of radar-rainfall error structure on estimated flood magnitude across scales: an investigation based on a parsimonious distributed hydrological model. Water Resour Res 48:W10515. doi:10.1029/2012WR012138
De Oliveira V (2004) A simple model for spatial rainfall fields. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 18:131–140. doi:10.1007/s00477-003-0146-4
Finnerty BD, Smith MB, Seo DJ, Koren V, Moglen GE (1997) Space-time scale sensitivity of the Sacramento model to radar-gage precipitation inputs. J Hydrol 203:21–38
Geem ZW, Kim JH, Loganathan GV (2001) A new heuristic optimization algorithm: harmony search. Simulation 76:60–68. doi:10.1177/003754970107600201
Graybill FA (1961) An introduction to linear statistical models. McGraw-Hill series in probability and statistics. McGraw-Hill, New York
Graybill FA (1969) Introduction to matrices with applications in statistics. Wadsworth Pub. Co., Belmont
Habib E, Aduvala AV, Meselhe EA (2008) Analysis of radar-rainfall error characteristics and implications for streamflow simulation uncertainty. Hydrol Sci J 53:568–587. doi:10.1623/hysj.53.3.568
Horn RA, Johnson CR (1990) Matrix analysis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Jägermeyr J, Gerten D, Lucht W, Hostert P, Migliavacca M, Nemani R (2014) A high-resolution approach to estimating ecosystem respiration at continental scales using operational satellite data. Glob Change Biol 20:1191–1210. doi:10.1111/gcb.12443
Krajewski WF, Smith JA (2002) Radar hydrology: rainfall estimation. Adv Water Resour 25:1387–1394. doi:10.1016/S0309-1708(02)00062-3
Lee J, Ryu C (2009) Radar meteorology. Sigma Press, Seoul
Mandapaka PV, Germann U (2010) Radar-Rainfall error models and ensemble generators. Rainfall State Sci 247–264
Mandapaka PV, Krajewski WF, Ciach GJ, Villarini G, Smith JA (2009) Estimation of radar-rainfall error spatial correlation. Adv Water Resour 32:1020–1030. doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2008.08.014
Marshall JS, Palmer WMK (1948) The distribution of raindrops with size. J Meteorol 5:165–166. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1948)005<0165:TDORWS>2.0.CO;2
Neary VS, Habib E, Fleming M (2004) Hydrologic modeling with NEXRAD precipitation in Middle Tennessee. J Hydrol Eng 9:339–349. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2004)
Olsson J (1996) Validity and applicability of a scale-independent, multifractal relationship for rainfall. Atmos Res 42:53–65. doi:10.1016/0169-8095(95)00052-6
Park JI, Singh VP (1996) Temporal and spatial characteristics of rainfall in the Nam river dam basin of Korea. Hydrol Process 10:1155–1171. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199609)10:9<1155:AID-HYP367>3.0.CO;2-U
Park JH, Ham GU, Jang DJ, Yoon SM, Choe CG, Kim KP (2009) Application of the distributed model using the RAIDOM method. Korean Soc Civil Eng (KSCE) 35:3240–3243
Park T, Lee T, Ahn S, Lee D (2015) Error influence of radar rainfall estimate on rainfall-runoff simulation. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 30:283–292. doi:10.1007/s00477-015-1090-9
Richards WG, Crozier CL (1983) Precipitation measurement with a C-band weather radar in southern Ontario. Atmosphere-Ocean 21:125–137
Ryzhkov AV, Giangrande SE, Schuur TJ (2005) Rainfall estimation with a polarimetric prototype of WSR-88D. J Appl Meteorol 44:502–515. doi:10.1175/JAM2213.1
Salvucci GD, Entekhabi D (1994) Explicit expressions for Green-Ampt (delta function diffusivity) infiltration rate and cumulative storage. Water Resour Res 30:2661–2663. doi:10.1029/94WR01494
Scheuer EM, Stoller DS (1962) On the generation of normal random vectors. Technometrics 4:278–281. doi:10.2307/1266625
Seo BC, Cunha LK, Krajewski WF (2013) Uncertainity in radar-rainfall composite and its impact on hydrologic prediction for the eastern Iowa flood of 2008. Water Resour Res 49:2747–2764. doi:10.1002/wrcr.20244
Sun X, Mein RG, Keenan TD, Elliott JF (2000) Flood estimation using radar and raingauge data. J Hydrol 239:4–18. doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00350-4
Vieux BE (2004) Distributed hydrologic modeling using GIS. Vol. 48: Water science and technology library, vol 48. Springer, Dordrecht
Vieux BE, Bedient PB (1998) Estimation of rainfall for flood prediction from WSR-88D reflectivity: a case study, 17–18 October 1994. Weather Forecast 13:407–415. doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<0407:EORFFP>2.0.CO;2
Villarini G, Krajewski WF (2010) Review of the different sources of uncertainty in single polarization radar-based estimates of rainfall. Surv Geophys 31:107–129. doi:10.1007/s10712-009-9079-x
Villarini G, Seo B-C, Serinaldi F, Krajewski WF (2014) Spatial and temporal modeling of radar rainfall uncertainties. Atmos Res 135–136:91–101. doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2013.09.007
Yen BC, Chow VT (1980) Design hyetographs for small drainage structures. J Hydraul Div 106:1055–1076
Yoon S, Jeong C, Lee T (2013) Application of harmony search to design storm estimation from probability distribution models. J Appl Math 2013:1–11. doi:10.1155/2013/932943
Yoon S, Jeong C, Lee T (2014) Flood flow simulation using CMAX radar rainfall estimates in orographic basins. Meteorol Appl 21:596–604. doi:10.1002/met.1382
Acknowledgments
This research was supported by a grant from a Strategic Research Project (Development of Flood Warning and Snowfall Estimation Platform Using Hydrological Radars), which was funded by the Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding authors
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Park, T., Lee, T., Ko, D. et al. Assessing spatially dependent errors in radar rainfall estimates for rainfall-runoff simulation. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 31, 1823–1838 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1325-4
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1325-4