Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Transitional variations and risk of hydro-meteorological droughts in the Tarim River basin, China

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The Tarim River basin, China, is a typical arid inland river basin in China. Management of water resources and agricultural development rely heavily on the understanding of droughts. In this study, an integrated drought index is proposed, based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index and the Standardized Runoff Index, and then the changing properties of drought regimes have been analyzed using a Markov Chain model. Results indicate that: (1) the Kaidu and Aksu Rivers are dominated by prompt transition between hydrological and meteorological droughts. Long-lasting droughts heavily impact agricultural development in the Kaidu and Yarkand River basins; (2) the Kaidu and Aksu River basins are influenced mainly by hydro-meteorological droughts and hydrological drought is dominant in the Yarkand River basin; (3) different drought conditions are the results of different sources of river runoff. Increasing precipitation alleviate droughts in the Tarim River basin. However, a drying tendency can still be found in the Kaidu River basin; (4) higher probability is detected for the transition from both meteorological and hydrological wet to both meteorological and hydrological dry, implying that the Tarim River basin is sensitive to both meteorological and hydrological droughts. Results of this study are of practical value for the regional management of water resources, planning of agricultural irrigation, and measures for mitigation of hydrological and meteorological droughts.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bai Y, Xu H, Ling H (2014) Drought–flood variation and its correlation with runoff in three headstreams of Tarim River, Xinjiang, China. Environ Earth Sci 71(3):1297–1309

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beguería S, Vicente-Serrano SM (2013) SPEI: calculation of the standardised precipitation-evapotranspiration index. http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=SPEI

  • Chen YN, Li WH, Xu CC, Hao XM (2007) Effects of climate change on water resources in Tarim River Basin, Northwest China. J Environ Sci 19:488–493

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Droogers P, Allen R (2002) Estimating reference evapotranspiration under inaccurate data conditions. Irrig Drain Syst 16(1):33–45

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eyton JR (1984) Complementary-color, two-variable maps. Ann Assoc Am Geogr 74(3):477–490

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hargreaves GH (1994) Defining and using reference evapotranspiration. J Irrig Drain Eng 120(6):1132–1139

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jiang FQ, Hu RJ, Wang YJ, Huang YY, Wang SD (2003) Response of extreme flood events to potential climate change from warm–dry to warm–wet in Xinjiang. J Nat Disasters 12:141–146 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Eight conference on applied climatology, Anaheim, California

  • Mishra AK, Singh VP (2010) A review of drought concepts. J Hydrol 391(1–2):202–216

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Niemeyer S (2008) New drought indices. Options Mediterranéennes 80, Series A

  • Qian WH, Lin X (2005) Regional trends in recent precipitation indices in China. Meteorol Atmos Phys 90:193–207

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sharma BR, Minhas PS (2005) Strategies for managing saline/alkali waters for sustainable agricultural production in South Asia. Agric Water Manag 78:136–151

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shi RJ (1992) Fundamentals of Markov China and applications. Xi’an: Xi’an Electron University of Science and Technology Press (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Shi YF (2003) Evaluations of shifts from warm–dry to warm–humid climate in the northwest China. Meteorology Press, Beijing (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Shukla S, Wood AW (2008) Use of a standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought. Geophys Res Lett 35:L02405. doi:10.1029/2007GL032487

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun P, Zhang Q, Lu XX, Bai Y (2012) Changing properties of low flow of the Tarim River basin: possible causes and implications. Quat Int 282:78–86

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tao H, Borth H, Fraedrich K et al (2014) Drought and wetness variability in the Tarim River Basin and connection to large‐scale atmospheric circulation. Int J Clim 34(8):2678–2684

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tokarczyk T, Szalińska W (2013) Combined analysis of precipitation and water deficit for drought hazard assessment. Hydrol Sci J 59(9):1675–1689

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguería S, López-Moreno JI (2010) A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. J Clim 23(7):1696–1718

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang W, Zhu Y, Xu R (2015) Drought severity change in China during 1961–2012 indicated by SPI and SPEI. Nat Hazards 75(3):2437–2451

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wen KG (2005) Encyclopedia of meteorological disasters in China. Meteorological Press, Beijing (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilks DS (2006) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences, 2nd edn. Academic Press, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Xu HL, Ye M, Li J (2008) The water transfer effects on agricultural development in the lower Tarim River, Xinjiang of China. Agric Water Manag 95:59–68

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Xu C-Y, Tao H, Jiang T, Chen YD (2010) Climate changes and their impacts on water resources in the arid regions: a case study of the Tarim River basin, China. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 24(3):349–358

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Singh VP, Li JF, Jiang FQ, Bai YG (2012a) Spatio-temporal variations of precipitation extremes in Xinjiang, China. J Hydrol 434–435:7–18

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Li J, Singh VP (2012b) Application of Archimedean Copulas in the analysis of the precipitation extremes: effects of precipitation changes. Theor Appl Climatol 107(1–2):255–264

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Li JF, Singh VP, Bai Y (2012c) SPI-based evaluation of drought events in Xinjiang, China. Nat Hazards 64(1):481–492

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Li JF, Singh VP, Xiao M (2013) Spatio-temporal relations between temperature and precipitation regimes: implications for temperature-induced changes in the hydrological cycle. Global Planet Change 111:57–76

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This work is financially supported by Xinjiang Science and Technology Project (Grant No.: 201331104), National Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of China (Grant No.: 51425903), Natural Science Foundation of Anhui province (Grant No.: 1408085MKL23) and is fully supported by a grant from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Project No. CUHK441313). Our cordial gratitude should be extended to the editor, Prof. Dr. George Christakos, and anonymous associate editor, three anonymous reviewers for their professional comments and pertinent revision suggestions which are greatly helpful for further improvement of the quality of this manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu, 241000, Anhui, China

    Peng Sun

  2. Anhui Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Process and Prevention, Wuhu, 241003, China

    Peng Sun

  3. School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Suzhou University, Suzhou, 234000, Anhui, China

    Qiang Zhang

  4. Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China

    Qiang Zhang & Mingzhong Xiao

  5. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China

    Qiang Zhang

  6. Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering and Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA

    Vijay P. Singh

  7. South China Institute of Environmental Sciences, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Guangzhou, 510655, China

    Xiuyu Zhang

Authors
  1. Peng Sun
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Qiang Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Vijay P. Singh
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Mingzhong Xiao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Xiuyu Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Xiuyu Zhang.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Sun, P., Zhang, Q., Singh, V.P. et al. Transitional variations and risk of hydro-meteorological droughts in the Tarim River basin, China. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 31, 1515–1526 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1254-2

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1254-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation