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Adaptation strategies for mitigating agricultural GHG emissions under dual-level uncertainties with the consideration of global warming impacts

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Abstract

Agriculture plays a central role in maintaining food security and achieving sustainable development for human society. It is a challenge for the agricultural sector to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and maintain agricultural production. However, dual-level uncertainties exist in the processes of agricultural GHG accounting and emission reduction management. In this research, an integrated approach for identifying adaptation strategies in agricultural GHG emission reduction management was developed through incorporating life cycle analysis (LCA) of agricultural production into a general mathematical programming model. This approach strengthened the applicability of LCA and the comprehensiveness of programming models in generating agricultural adaptive actions under different GHG emission restriction targets. Also, dual-level uncertainties of LCA and adaptation management can be effectively addressed. A case study was proposed to illustrate application of the approach in Dalian City, China. The results indicated that farming patterns in eight districts would change significantly. The total area of maize fields would account for the primary proportion (i.e., 40–45 %) in its agricultural sector. Rice, peanut and cabbage fields would be the minor contributors in terms of GHG emissions. In addition to effective rainfall (i.e., [156, 259] mm/ha), a certain amount of water would be supplied for agricultural irrigation to maximize the city’s agricultural yields. Compared with other agricultural crops, rice fields would need the largest amount of irrigation water (i.e., [153.72, 277.98] Mt) to meet the requirements of local government plans.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 51522901 and 51421065), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No. 2014KJJCB10). The authors much appreciate the editor and the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions which are extremely helpful for improving the paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

    Wencong Yue, Yanpeng Cai, Linyu Xu & Xin’An Yin

  2. Beijing Engineering Research Center for Watershed Environmental Restoration and Integrated Ecological Regulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

    Wencong Yue & Yanpeng Cai

  3. College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China

    Qian Tan

  4. Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, SK, Canada

    Yanpeng Cai & Qian Tan

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  1. Wencong Yue
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  2. Yanpeng Cai
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Correspondence to Yanpeng Cai.

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Appendix

Appendix

1.1 Results

See Tables 10, 11, 12 and 13.

Table 10 Above-ground biomass carbon annual stock of apple orchards in Dalian (unit: 10 Mt CO2eq)
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Table 11 Emission of CH4 in rice fields in Dalian (2012) (unit: 1000 kg/yr)
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Table 12 Emission of N2O in fertilizers for agricultural production in Dalian (2012) (unit: kg)
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Table 13 GHG emissions in agricultural machinery (2012) (unit: kg)
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1.2 Source of data in case study

See Tables 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19 and 20.

Table 14 The price changes in agricultural production between 2004 and 2012 (unit: %)
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Table 15 The total nitrogen of fertilizer for agricultural production in Dalian (2012) (unit: kg)
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Table 16 The average amount and cost in agricultural machinery of Dalian (2012)
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Table 17 The planting area and output of main agricultural crops in Dalian (2012) (unit: area/ha; output/t)
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Table 18 The agricultural plan of Dalian (2020) (unit: ha)
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Table 19 The outputs and costs of main agricultural crops in Dalian (2012) (unit: amount-kg/ha; price-yuan/kg; cost-yuan/ha)
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Table 20 Average precipitation in multiple probability levels in Dalian (unit: mm/yr)
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Yue, W., Cai, Y., Xu, L. et al. Adaptation strategies for mitigating agricultural GHG emissions under dual-level uncertainties with the consideration of global warming impacts. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 31, 961–979 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1244-4

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