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Contribution of climatic and technological factors to crop yield: empirical evidence from late paddy rice in Hunan Province, China

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Abstract

Climatic and technological factors are two remarkable aspects that are thought to contribute to crop yield change. However, the most significant factors and their contribution rate remain debatable. Selecting Hunan Province, which is one of the largest paddy rice producing regions in China as the research area, the marginal contributions of climatic and technological factors to late paddy yield change are estimated using a county-level panel data regression model with explicit consideration of technological variables during 2000–2011. The results indicate that the mean daily temperature and adoption rate of hybrid rice have significant positive impacts on late paddy rice yield. During the research period, 1 °C temperature increase will cause 7.220 t/km2 increase in late paddy rice yield, and 1 % increase in the adoption rate of hybrid rice will cause 0.212 t/km2 increase. Climatic factors, especially their annual variability, exhibit a stronger overall linkage to changes in late paddy rice yield in the study area compared with the technological factors. Climatic factors accounted for 67.645 and 74.585 % of the trend and variability in late paddy rice yield, respectively. The results of this study can provide valuable information for stakeholders to adjust the input on late paddy rice production and better adapt to the effect of climate change.

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Acknowledgments

We thanks to the comments of anonymous reviewers and the Editors. This study was financially supported by the Foundation for Innovative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant no. 41321001),  the 973 Program: “Adaptation Paradigms to Global and China’s Environmental Risks” (Grant no. 2012CB955404), and the 111 project: “Hazard and Risk Science Base at Beijing Normal University” (Grant no. B08008).

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  1. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Zhu Wang, Jun Wang & Peijun Shi

  2. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Tao Ye & Peijun Shi

  3. School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Zhuo Cheng

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Wang, Z., Ye, T., Wang, J. et al. Contribution of climatic and technological factors to crop yield: empirical evidence from late paddy rice in Hunan Province, China. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 30, 2019–2030 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1215-9

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