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Simulating low and high streamflow driven by snowmelt in an insufficiently gauged alpine basin

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment volume 30, pages 59–75 (2016)Cite this article

Abstract

Snowmelt and water infiltration are two important processes of the hydrological cycle in alpine basins where snowmelt water is a main contributor of streamflow. In insufficiently gauged basins, hydrologic modeling is a useful approach to understand the runoff formation process and to simulate streamflow. In this study, an existing hydrologic model based on the principles of system dynamics was modified by using the effective cumulative temperature (>0 °C) to calculate snowmelt rate, and the soil temperature to adjust the influence of the soil’s physical state on water infiltration. This modified model was used to simulate streamflows in the Kaidu River basin from 1982 to 2002, including normal, high, and low flows categorized by the Z index. Sensitivity analyses, visual inspection, and statistical measures were employed to evaluate the capability of the model to simulate various components of the streamflow. Results showed that the modified model was robust, and able to simulate the three categories of flows well. The model’s ability to reproduce streamflow in low-flow and normal-flow years was better than that in high-flow years. The model was also able to simulate the baseflow. Further, its ability to simulate spring-peak flow was much better than its ability to simulate the summer-peak flow. This study could provide useful information for water managers in determining water allocations as well as in managing water resources.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the Project of State Key Basic R&D Program of China under Grant 973 Program, No. 2012CB956204), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC Grant No. 41401030), and the project of Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone (Grant No. XJYS0907-2010-02). We thank Ms Linxi LI from the University of Guelph for her help in editing the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China

    Feiyun Zhang, Xin Zhao, Xianwei Feng & Lanhai Li

  2. Graduate School, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Feiyun Zhang

  3. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV, 89154-4015, USA

    Sajjad Ahmad

  4. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Hongqi Zhang

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  1. Feiyun Zhang
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  2. Sajjad Ahmad
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  4. Xin Zhao
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  5. Xianwei Feng
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  6. Lanhai Li
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Correspondence to Lanhai Li.

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Zhang, F., Ahmad, S., Zhang, H. et al. Simulating low and high streamflow driven by snowmelt in an insufficiently gauged alpine basin. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 30, 59–75 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-015-1028-2

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Keywords

  • Streamflow
  • Cumulative temperature
  • Snowmelt
  • Infiltration
  • Kaidu River basin
  • System dynamics

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