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Research on meteorological thresholds of drought and flood disaster: a case study in the Huai River Basin, China

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Abstract

Together with affected areas of crops from 1978 to 2008, the daily precipitation of 110 stations located in the Huai River Basin during 1959–2008 was used to study the critical conditions when drought and flood occur, based on which the quantitative relationship between the critical condition and the affected area of crops was further studied. Based on the research on the hazard-formative factor of precipitation and the damage degree of crops, the spatial-temporal characteristics of disasters were analyzed, the drought and flood disaster-causing threshold was determined, and the quantitative relationship between the disaster-causing threshold and affected area of crops was established. The results are as the follows: (1) During 1959–2008, extreme precipitation levels were high in the eastern and western part of the Huai River Basin and were low in its central part; the spatial distribution of the coefficient of variation (CV) differed greatly from average extreme precipitation: the series of most stations were located in the central basin, and especially there was a positive trend in Anhui and Henan Provinces. (2) The cumulative precipitation during the disaster period of each station was divided by its mean cumulative precipitation during the same period in 1959–2008 to obtain the disaster-causing threshold, which has shown a good effect on reflecting the actual grade and affected areas in disasters. (3) The relationship among disaster grade, disaster-causing threshold and damage area of crops was established; this threshold can be used as a tool for agricultural disaster assessment and early warning, and can effectively improve the ability to prevent and mitigate disaster in the Huai River Basin. (4) The disaster-causing threshold can be an important input parameter for hazard assessment; other underlying surface indicators can be good supplements for determining the threshold in hazard assessment.

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Acknowledgments

This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41101035) and Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education (SRFDP, 20113424120002, 20123424110001) and the Natural Sciences Foundation of Jiangsu Province (BK201122798).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu, 241000, China

    Chao Gao, Zhengtao Zhang, Liu Qing & Yao Mengting

  2. National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China

    Jianqing Zhai

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  1. Chao Gao
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  2. Zhengtao Zhang
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  3. Jianqing Zhai
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  4. Liu Qing
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  5. Yao Mengting
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Correspondence to Chao Gao.

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Gao, C., Zhang, Z., Zhai, J. et al. Research on meteorological thresholds of drought and flood disaster: a case study in the Huai River Basin, China. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 29, 157–167 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-014-0951-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-014-0951-y

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