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A spatio-temporal Poisson hurdle point process to model wildfires

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment volume 28, pages 1671–1684 (2014)Cite this article

Abstract

Wildfires have been studied in many ways, for instance as a spatial point pattern or through modeling the size of fires or the relative risk of big fires. Lately a large variety of complex statistical models can be fitted routinely to complex data sets, in particular wildfires, as a result of widely accessible high-level statistical software, such as R. The objective in this paper is to model the occurrence of big wildfires (greater than a given extension of hectares) using an adapted two-part econometric model, specifically a hurdle model. The methodology used in this paper is useful to determine those factors that help any fire to become a big wildfire. Our proposal and methodology can be routinely used to contribute to the management of big wildfires.

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Acknowledgments

This work was partially funded by Grant MTM2010-14961 from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Education.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain

    Laura Serra & Marc Saez

  2. Research Group on Statistics, Econometrics and Health (GRECS), University of Girona, Girona, Spain

    Laura Serra, Marc Saez & Diego Varga

  3. Department of Mathematics, University Jaume I of Castellon, Campus Riu Sec, Castelló de la Plana, Spain

    Pablo Juan & Jorge Mateu

  4. Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Autonomous University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain

    Diego Varga

Authors
  1. Laura Serra
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  2. Marc Saez
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  3. Pablo Juan
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  4. Diego Varga
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  5. Jorge Mateu
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Correspondence to Laura Serra.

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Serra, L., Saez, M., Juan, P. et al. A spatio-temporal Poisson hurdle point process to model wildfires. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 28, 1671–1684 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-013-0823-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-013-0823-x

Keywords

  • Hurdle model
  • INLA
  • Spatio-temporal point processes
  • SPDE
  • Wildfire