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Uncertainty analysis of downscaling methods in assessing the influence of climate change on hydrology

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Abstract

Five downscaling techniques, namely the statistical downscaling model, the automated statistical downscaling method, the change factor (CF) method, the advanced CF method, the Weather generator (LarsWG5) method, are applied to the upstream basin of the Huaihe River. Changes in regional climate scenarios and hydrology variables are compared in future periods to investigate the uncertainty associated with the downscaling techniques. Paired-sample T test is applied to evaluation the significant of the difference of the means between the observed data and the downscaled data in the future. The Xinanjiang rainfall–runoff model is employed to simulate the rainfall–runoff relation. The results demonstrate that the downscaling techniques utilized herein predict an increased tendency in the future. The increases range of maximum temperature (Tmax) is between 3.7 and 4.7 °C until the time period of 2070–2099 (2080s). While, the increases range of minimum temperature (Tmin) is between 2.8 and 4.9 °C until 2080s. The research presented herein determined that there is an increase predicted for the peaks over threshold (discussed in the paper) and a decrease predicted for the peaks below the threshold (discussed in the paper) in the future, which illustrates that the temperature would rise gradually in the future. Precipitation changes are not as obvious as temperatures changes and tend to be influence by the season. Most downscaling techniques predict increases, and others indict decreases. The annual mean precipitation range changes between 3.2 and 53.3 %, and moreover, these changes vary from season to season.

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Acknowledgments

This research is supported by the Program for National Basic Research Program of China (2013CBA01806, 2010CB951101), the Major Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (51190090), NSSF (41371049, 50939006), the Program for Graduate Education Innovation Project in Jiangsu Province (CXLX13_239) and IWHRSKL-201213. The authors wish to acknowledge gratefully Kendra M. Dresback of University of Oklahoma for revising the grammar of this paper.

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  1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China

    Fen Ouyang, Haishen Lü, Yonghua Zhu, Zhongbo Yu, Xi Chen & Min Li

  2. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, 210029, China

    Jianyun Zhang

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  1. Fen Ouyang
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  2. Haishen Lü
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Correspondence to Haishen Lü.

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Ouyang, F., Lü, H., Zhu, Y. et al. Uncertainty analysis of downscaling methods in assessing the influence of climate change on hydrology. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 28, 991–1010 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-013-0796-9

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